{"annee": 2027, "passee": false, "date_premier_tour": "2027-04-18", "date_second_tour": "2027-05-02", "date_prevision": "2026-10-25", "jours_avant": 175, "candidats": {"Marine Le Pen": {"court": "Le Pen", "parti": "RN", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 7}, "Édouard Philippe": {"court": "Philippe", "parti": "HOR", "famille": "Centre droit", "ordre": 7, "slot": 3}, "Gabriel Attal": {"court": "Attal", "parti": "RE", "famille": "Centre", "ordre": 6, "slot": 4}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"court": "Glucksmann", "parti": "PP", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Bruno Retailleau": {"court": "Retailleau", "parti": "LR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "David Lisnard": {"court": "Lisnard", "parti": "NE", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 6}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"court": "Mélenchon", "parti": "LFI", "famille": "Gauche radicale", "ordre": 2, "slot": 8}, "Olivier Faure": {"court": "Faure", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "François Hollande": {"court": "Hollande", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 2}, "Jordan Bardella": {"court": "Bardella", "parti": "RN", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 7}, "Laurent Wauquiez": {"court": "Wauquiez", "parti": "LR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Dominique de Villepin": {"court": "Villepin", "parti": "LFE", "famille": "Centre droit", "ordre": 7, "slot": 0}, "Éric Zemmour": {"court": "Zemmour", "parti": "REC", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 0}, "Marine Tondelier": {"court": "Tondelier", "parti": "LE", "famille": "Écologiste", "ordre": 5, "slot": 0}, "Xavier Bertrand": {"court": "Bertrand", "parti": "LR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 0}, "Fabien Roussel": {"court": "Roussel", "parti": "PCF", "famille": "Communiste", "ordre": 1, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 7.52, "q05": 2.96, "q50": 7.08, "q95": 13.59, "p_premier": 0.0002, "p_qualifie": 0.0149, "p_victoire": 0.0028}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 16.62, "q05": 9.62, "q50": 16.27, "q95": 24.85, "p_premier": 0.0203, "p_qualifie": 0.4364, "p_victoire": 0.0023}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 34.3, "q05": 24.84, "q50": 34.14, "q95": 44.33, "p_premier": 0.9586, "p_qualifie": 0.9957, "p_victoire": 0.8627}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 13.56, "q05": 7.22, "q50": 13.18, "q95": 21.22, "p_premier": 0.0058, "p_qualifie": 0.1929, "p_victoire": 0.0357}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 15.83, "q05": 8.99, "q50": 15.46, "q95": 23.91, "p_premier": 0.0151, "p_qualifie": 0.3601, "p_victoire": 0.0965}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 12.16}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.4306, "p_a_gagne": 0.004, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3123, "a_q95": 42.903, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.3548, "p_a_gagne": 0.7356, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.1674, "a_q95": 65.0964, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.19, "p_a_gagne": 0.8171, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 45.0167, "a_q95": 66.8337, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0147, "p_a_gagne": 0.1896, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 29.9427, "a_q95": 56.2011, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.3718, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0043, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4431, "detail": "Score attendu : 34,3 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1634, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1564, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7428, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Philippe au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5448, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 22, "instituts": ["Cluster17", "Elabe", "Harris", "Ifop", "Ipsos", "Odoxa", "OpinionWay", "YouGov"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2026-10-22", "source": "https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/presidentielle-2027-melenchon-progresse-le-pen-reste-en-tete", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.164}, {"sondeur": "Harris", "fin": "2026-10-21", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10332-pres-iv-toluna-harris-interactive-23-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.163}, {"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2026-10-19", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10327-pres-barometre-election-v7-ifop-20-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 2, "poids": 0.16}, {"sondeur": "Elabe", "fin": "2026-10-16", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10324-pres-iv-elabe-17-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 2, "poids": 0.157}, {"sondeur": "YouGov", "fin": "2026-10-15", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10323-pres-iv-yougov-le-huffpost-18-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.156}, {"sondeur": "OpinionWay", "fin": "2026-10-14", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10318-pres-presitrack-v3-opinionway-15-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.155}, {"sondeur": "Odoxa", "fin": "2026-10-07", "source": "https://www.odoxa.fr/sondage/melenchon-est-passe-devant-philippe-au-premier-tour-marine-le-pen-est-plus-que-jamais-la-grande-favorite-pour-2027-a-la-fois-au-premier-et-au-second-tour/", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.148}, {"sondeur": "Cluster17", "fin": "2026-09-16", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10273-pres-iv-cluster17-politico-24-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.129}], "concentration": 63.1}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal, sans Philippe", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Gabriel Attal", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 9.36, "q05": 4.18, "q50": 8.94, "q95": 16.01, "p_premier": 0.0006, "p_qualifie": 0.0492, "p_victoire": 0.0095}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 11.25, "q05": 5.53, "q50": 10.83, "q95": 18.37, "p_premier": 0.0015, "p_qualifie": 0.1061, "p_victoire": 0.0201}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 16.97, "q05": 9.92, "q50": 16.63, "q95": 25.27, "p_premier": 0.0203, "p_qualifie": 0.5475, "p_victoire": 0.0029}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 34.95, "q05": 25.42, "q50": 34.78, "q95": 45.05, "p_premier": 0.97, "p_qualifie": 0.9977, "p_victoire": 0.913}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 14.51, "q05": 7.97, "q50": 14.13, "q95": 22.32, "p_premier": 0.0077, "p_qualifie": 0.2994, "p_victoire": 0.0545}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 12.96}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.5412, "p_a_gagne": 0.0036, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3248, "a_q95": 42.8583, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.2953, "p_a_gagne": 0.8187, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 44.9638, "a_q95": 66.7337, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.1049, "p_a_gagne": 0.1895, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.4894, "a_q95": 55.6931, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0486, "p_a_gagne": 0.1935, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 29.9684, "a_q95": 56.2127, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.1546, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0023, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4852, "detail": "Score attendu : 35,0 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1103, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1507, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.8124, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Glucksmann au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6398, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 20, "instituts": ["Cluster17", "Elabe", "Harris", "Ifop", "Ipsos", "Odoxa", "OpinionWay", "YouGov"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2026-10-22", "source": "https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/presidentielle-2027-melenchon-progresse-le-pen-reste-en-tete", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.164}, {"sondeur": "Harris", "fin": "2026-10-21", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10332-pres-iv-toluna-harris-interactive-23-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.163}, {"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2026-10-19", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10327-pres-barometre-election-v7-ifop-20-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.16}, {"sondeur": "Elabe", "fin": "2026-10-16", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10324-pres-iv-elabe-17-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.157}, {"sondeur": "YouGov", "fin": "2026-10-15", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10323-pres-iv-yougov-le-huffpost-18-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.156}, {"sondeur": "OpinionWay", "fin": "2026-10-14", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10318-pres-presitrack-v3-opinionway-15-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.155}, {"sondeur": "Odoxa", "fin": "2026-10-07", "source": "https://www.odoxa.fr/sondage/melenchon-est-passe-devant-philippe-au-premier-tour-marine-le-pen-est-plus-que-jamais-la-grande-favorite-pour-2027-a-la-fois-au-premier-et-au-second-tour/", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.148}, {"sondeur": "Cluster17", "fin": "2026-09-16", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10273-pres-iv-cluster17-politico-24-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.129}], "concentration": 63.1}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Gabriel Attal"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 6.78, "q05": 2.56, "q50": 6.36, "q95": 12.5, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.0168, "p_victoire": 0.0032}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 5.55, "q05": 1.82, "q50": 5.11, "q95": 10.82, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0076, "p_victoire": 0.0016}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 15.68, "q05": 8.97, "q50": 15.32, "q95": 23.57, "p_premier": 0.0147, "p_qualifie": 0.5152, "p_victoire": 0.0023}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 34.01, "q05": 24.73, "q50": 33.83, "q95": 43.85, "p_premier": 0.9773, "p_qualifie": 0.9984, "p_victoire": 0.8916}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 13.06, "q05": 6.95, "q50": 12.69, "q95": 20.45, "p_premier": 0.0048, "p_qualifie": 0.2588, "p_victoire": 0.0471}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 12.31, "q05": 6.41, "q50": 11.92, "q95": 19.54, "p_premier": 0.0031, "p_qualifie": 0.2032, "p_victoire": 0.0543}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 12.61}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.5116, "p_a_gagne": 0.0035, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.2984, "a_q95": 42.9117, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.2567, "p_a_gagne": 0.8179, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 45.0354, "a_q95": 66.9072, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.2015, "p_a_gagne": 0.7343, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.1038, "a_q95": 65.1391, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0167, "p_a_gagne": 0.1919, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 29.721, "a_q95": 55.8638, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0075, "p_a_gagne": 0.2055, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.9171, "a_q95": 55.9244, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.2267, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0016, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4216, "detail": "Score attendu : 34,0 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1256, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1656, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7837, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Glucksmann au premier tour ?", "p": 0.656, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 20, "instituts": ["Elabe", "Harris", "Ifop", "Ipsos", "OpinionWay", "YouGov"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2026-10-22", "source": "https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/presidentielle-2027-melenchon-progresse-le-pen-reste-en-tete", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.164}, {"sondeur": "Harris", "fin": "2026-10-21", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10332-pres-iv-toluna-harris-interactive-23-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.163}, {"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2026-10-19", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10327-pres-barometre-election-v7-ifop-20-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 2, "poids": 0.16}, {"sondeur": "Elabe", "fin": "2026-10-16", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10324-pres-iv-elabe-17-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.157}, {"sondeur": "YouGov", "fin": "2026-10-15", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10323-pres-iv-yougov-le-huffpost-18-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.156}, {"sondeur": "OpinionWay", "fin": "2026-10-14", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10318-pres-presitrack-v3-opinionway-15-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.155}], "concentration": 65.4}, {"libelle": "Avec Lisnard", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "David Lisnard", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Bruno Retailleau"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 5.96, "q05": 2.06, "q50": 5.52, "q95": 11.36, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.0055, "p_victoire": 0.001}, "David Lisnard": {"moyenne": 6.71, "q05": 2.52, "q50": 6.28, "q95": 12.41, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.0093, "p_victoire": 0.0046}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 16.81, "q05": 9.89, "q50": 16.49, "q95": 24.86, "p_premier": 0.0377, "p_qualifie": 0.4908, "p_victoire": 0.0028}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 31.42, "q05": 22.36, "q50": 31.18, "q95": 41.09, "p_premier": 0.9328, "p_qualifie": 0.9913, "p_victoire": 0.8659}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 12.79, "q05": 6.75, "q50": 12.41, "q95": 20.15, "p_premier": 0.0071, "p_qualifie": 0.1628, "p_victoire": 0.0311}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 15.33, "q05": 8.7, "q50": 14.97, "q95": 23.14, "p_premier": 0.0222, "p_qualifie": 0.3404, "p_victoire": 0.0946}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 10.99}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.4828, "p_a_gagne": 0.0036, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.2515, "a_q95": 42.8162, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.3335, "p_a_gagne": 0.7342, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.2342, "a_q95": 65.0929, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.1594, "p_a_gagne": 0.8151, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 44.8975, "a_q95": 66.6846, "sonde": true}, {"a": "David Lisnard", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0092, "p_a_gagne": 0.4984, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 4.6097, "a_q95": 94.4691, "sonde": false}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0054, "p_a_gagne": 0.1821, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 29.9291, "a_q95": 55.9506, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.0053, "p_a_gagne": 0.0056, "a_moyenne": 34.1396, "a_q05": 23.553, "a_q95": 44.1665, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "David Lisnard", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.3484, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0087, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 30 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5822, "detail": "Score attendu : 31,4 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1762, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1594, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7706, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Philippe au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5864, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 5, "instituts": ["Cluster17", "Elabe", "Harris", "Ipsos"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2026-10-22", "source": "https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/presidentielle-2027-melenchon-progresse-le-pen-reste-en-tete", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.164}, {"sondeur": "Harris", "fin": "2026-10-21", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10332-pres-iv-toluna-harris-interactive-23-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.163}, {"sondeur": "Elabe", "fin": "2026-10-16", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10324-pres-iv-elabe-17-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.157}, {"sondeur": "Cluster17", "fin": "2026-10-15", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10325-pres-focus-droite-et-centre-cluster17-le-point-18-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.156}], "concentration": 65.7}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal et Lisnard", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Édouard Philippe", "David Lisnard", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Gabriel Attal"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 5.72, "q05": 1.92, "q50": 5.27, "q95": 11.03, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0129, "p_victoire": 0.0025}, "David Lisnard": {"moyenne": 5.4, "q05": 1.73, "q50": 4.96, "q95": 10.55, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.0105, "p_victoire": 0.0054}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 4.89, "q05": 1.45, "q50": 4.45, "q95": 9.87, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0074, "p_victoire": 0.0015}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 14.61, "q05": 8.17, "q50": 14.25, "q95": 22.26, "p_premier": 0.0087, "p_qualifie": 0.5228, "p_victoire": 0.0019}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 34.32, "q05": 25.06, "q50": 34.15, "q95": 44.15, "p_premier": 0.9867, "p_qualifie": 0.9993, "p_victoire": 0.893}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 12.34, "q05": 6.43, "q50": 11.96, "q95": 19.54, "p_premier": 0.0032, "p_qualifie": 0.2798, "p_victoire": 0.0507}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 10.74, "q05": 5.28, "q50": 10.37, "q95": 17.61, "p_premier": 0.0013, "p_qualifie": 0.1673, "p_victoire": 0.0449}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 11.98}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.5199, "p_a_gagne": 0.0034, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.4006, "a_q95": 42.8258, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.278, "p_a_gagne": 0.8184, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 44.955, "a_q95": 66.943, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.1661, "p_a_gagne": 0.7311, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.0555, "a_q95": 65.0696, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0129, "p_a_gagne": 0.1907, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.1825, "a_q95": 56.1869, "sonde": true}, {"a": "David Lisnard", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0104, "p_a_gagne": 0.5185, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 4.3264, "a_q95": 95.2597, "sonde": false}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0073, "p_a_gagne": 0.2094, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.8998, "a_q95": 55.5199, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "David Lisnard", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.1977, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0007, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4423, "detail": "Score attendu : 34,3 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1175, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.172, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7924, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Glucksmann au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6438, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 7, "instituts": ["Ifop", "OpinionWay", "YouGov"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "OpinionWay", "fin": "2026-10-22", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10333-pres-iv-opinionway-cnews-22-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.164}, {"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2026-10-19", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10327-pres-barometre-election-v7-ifop-20-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.16}, {"sondeur": "YouGov", "fin": "2026-10-15", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10323-pres-iv-yougov-le-huffpost-18-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.156}], "concentration": 66.0}, {"libelle": "Avec Hollande, sans Glucksmann", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "François Hollande", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 7.54, "q05": 2.91, "q50": 7.08, "q95": 13.74, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.016, "p_victoire": 0.0031}, "François Hollande": {"moyenne": 8.2, "q05": 3.33, "q50": 7.75, "q95": 14.64, "p_premier": 0.0003, "p_qualifie": 0.023, "p_victoire": 0.0033}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 16.61, "q05": 9.48, "q50": 16.26, "q95": 25.03, "p_premier": 0.0184, "p_qualifie": 0.4223, "p_victoire": 0.0016}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 35.12, "q05": 25.44, "q50": 34.97, "q95": 45.45, "p_premier": 0.9548, "p_qualifie": 0.9962, "p_victoire": 0.8459}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 17.79, "q05": 10.43, "q50": 17.42, "q95": 26.38, "p_premier": 0.0265, "p_qualifie": 0.5424, "p_victoire": 0.1461}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 14.73}}, "duels": [{"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.5336, "p_a_gagne": 0.7329, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.0876, "a_q95": 65.0756, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.4147, "p_a_gagne": 0.0036, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3072, "a_q95": 42.8209, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Hollande", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0226, "p_a_gagne": 0.14, "a_moyenne": 43.0344, "a_q05": 32.875, "a_q95": 53.9434, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0157, "p_a_gagne": 0.1966, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.2431, "a_q95": 56.366, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "François Hollande", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.5547, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0038, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4983, "detail": "Score attendu : 35,1 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1801, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1218, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7224, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Philippe devant Mélenchon au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5616, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 5, "instituts": ["Harris", "Ifop", "YouGov"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "YouGov", "fin": "2026-10-15", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10323-pres-iv-yougov-le-huffpost-18-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.156}, {"sondeur": "Harris", "fin": "2026-10-08", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10305-pres-iv-toluna-harris-interactive-12-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.149}, {"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10284-pres-barometre-election-presidentielle-v6-ifop-le-figaro-30-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.14}], "concentration": 60.8}, {"libelle": "Avec Faure, sans Glucksmann", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Olivier Faure"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 7.8, "q05": 2.8, "q50": 7.26, "q95": 14.62, "p_premier": 0.0004, "p_qualifie": 0.0151, "p_victoire": 0.0031}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 15.73, "q05": 8.32, "q50": 15.28, "q95": 24.6, "p_premier": 0.0184, "p_qualifie": 0.2455, "p_victoire": 0.0009}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 34.46, "q05": 24.06, "q50": 34.21, "q95": 45.5, "p_premier": 0.8846, "p_qualifie": 0.9896, "p_victoire": 0.7907}, "Olivier Faure": {"moyenne": 4.18, "q05": 0.85, "q50": 3.62, "q95": 9.5, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0013, "p_victoire": 0.0007}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 21.44, "q05": 12.86, "q50": 21.1, "q95": 31.36, "p_premier": 0.0967, "p_qualifie": 0.7485, "p_victoire": 0.2045}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 16.39}}, "duels": [{"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.7297, "p_a_gagne": 0.7335, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.096, "a_q95": 65.0709, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.2329, "p_a_gagne": 0.0035, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3295, "a_q95": 43.0023, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0146, "p_a_gagne": 0.1991, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.0221, "a_q95": 56.4488, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.0099, "p_a_gagne": 0.0075, "a_moyenne": 34.1396, "a_q05": 24.3693, "a_q95": 44.7658, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Olivier Faure", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.7532, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0104, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4526, "detail": "Score attendu : 34,5 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.2598, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.0865, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.6442, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Philippe devant Mélenchon au premier tour ?", "p": 0.7556, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 4, "instituts": ["Elabe", "Ifop", "Ipsos"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10284-pres-barometre-election-presidentielle-v6-ifop-le-figaro-30-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.14}, {"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2026-09-09", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10262-pres-enquete-electorale-ipsos-bva-le-monde-13-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.124}, {"sondeur": "Elabe", "fin": "2026-08-28", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/aout/10245-pres-iv-elabe-29-aout.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.116}], "concentration": 52.1}, {"libelle": "Sans Glucksmann", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 8.51, "q05": 3.38, "q50": 8.01, "q95": 15.3, "p_premier": 0.0003, "p_qualifie": 0.0177, "p_victoire": 0.0034}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 17.38, "q05": 9.83, "q50": 16.99, "q95": 26.26, "p_premier": 0.0213, "p_qualifie": 0.3504, "p_victoire": 0.0013}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 35.98, "q05": 25.8, "q50": 35.83, "q95": 46.83, "p_premier": 0.9247, "p_qualifie": 0.9928, "p_victoire": 0.8239}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 20.41, "q05": 12.27, "q50": 20.05, "q95": 29.77, "p_premier": 0.0538, "p_qualifie": 0.6391, "p_victoire": 0.1714}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 17.72}}, "duels": [{"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.621, "p_a_gagne": 0.7353, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.1584, "a_q95": 65.0789, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.3377, "p_a_gagne": 0.0036, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3185, "a_q95": 42.921, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0172, "p_a_gagne": 0.192, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.0332, "a_q95": 56.2165, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.007, "p_a_gagne": 0.0107, "a_moyenne": 34.1396, "a_q05": 23.8393, "a_q95": 45.1056, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.6496, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0072, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5506, "detail": "Score attendu : 36,0 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.2136, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1019, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.6869, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Philippe devant Mélenchon au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6464, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 4, "instituts": ["Ifop", "YouGov"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10284-pres-barometre-election-presidentielle-v6-ifop-le-figaro-30-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 3, "poids": 0.14}, {"sondeur": "YouGov", "fin": "2026-09-21", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10270-pres-iv-yougov-huffpost-23-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.133}], "concentration": 56.0}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal et Faure, sans Glucksmann et Philippe", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Gabriel Attal", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Olivier Faure"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 10.93, "q05": 4.93, "q50": 10.45, "q95": 18.54, "p_premier": 0.0022, "p_qualifie": 0.0925, "p_victoire": 0.0184}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 16.31, "q05": 8.91, "q50": 15.91, "q95": 25.12, "p_premier": 0.0215, "p_qualifie": 0.4214, "p_victoire": 0.0829}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 16.99, "q05": 9.43, "q50": 16.58, "q95": 25.99, "p_premier": 0.0277, "p_qualifie": 0.4863, "p_victoire": 0.0038}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 35.01, "q05": 24.77, "q50": 34.79, "q95": 45.91, "p_premier": 0.9485, "p_qualifie": 0.995, "p_victoire": 0.8925}, "Olivier Faure": {"moyenne": 5.03, "q05": 1.29, "q50": 4.49, "q95": 10.61, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0047, "p_victoire": 0.0024}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 15.73}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.4761, "p_a_gagne": 0.0034, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.2847, "a_q95": 42.887, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.4115, "p_a_gagne": 0.1958, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.3481, "a_q95": 55.6863, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0903, "p_a_gagne": 0.198, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.017, "a_q95": 56.574, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Olivier Faure"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.509, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.005, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4862, "detail": "Score attendu : 35,0 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1429, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1316, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7933, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Attal au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5351, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 3, "instituts": ["Ifop", "Ipsos"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10284-pres-barometre-election-presidentielle-v6-ifop-le-figaro-30-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.14}, {"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2026-09-09", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10262-pres-enquete-electorale-ipsos-bva-le-monde-13-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.124}], "concentration": 54.3}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal et Faure, sans Glucksmann", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Gabriel Attal", "Bruno Retailleau", "Olivier Faure", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 7.74, "q05": 2.8, "q50": 7.21, "q95": 14.46, "p_premier": 0.0006, "p_qualifie": 0.0398, "p_victoire": 0.0079}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 8.48, "q05": 3.26, "q50": 7.95, "q95": 15.45, "p_premier": 0.001, "p_qualifie": 0.0562, "p_victoire": 0.0109}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 16.18, "q05": 8.73, "q50": 15.74, "q95": 25.09, "p_premier": 0.0287, "p_qualifie": 0.5603, "p_victoire": 0.0023}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 33.85, "q05": 23.68, "q50": 33.64, "q95": 44.83, "p_premier": 0.9569, "p_qualifie": 0.9965, "p_victoire": 0.8843}, "Olivier Faure": {"moyenne": 5.07, "q05": 1.3, "q50": 4.52, "q95": 10.73, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.009, "p_victoire": 0.0042}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 13.94, "q05": 7.05, "q50": 13.5, "q95": 22.39, "p_premier": 0.0128, "p_qualifie": 0.3382, "p_victoire": 0.0904}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 14.74}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.5523, "p_a_gagne": 0.0036, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.2869, "a_q95": 42.8352, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.3323, "p_a_gagne": 0.7364, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.0903, "a_q95": 65.0292, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0553, "p_a_gagne": 0.1933, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.3412, "a_q95": 55.6571, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0391, "p_a_gagne": 0.1967, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.0942, "a_q95": 56.4051, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Olivier Faure", "p_duel": 0.0088, "p_a_gagne": 0.5289, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 5.5939, "a_q95": 94.9814, "sonde": false}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Olivier Faure", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.4307, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0035, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4182, "detail": "Score attendu : 33,9 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1472, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1389, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7919, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Philippe au premier tour ?", "p": 0.62, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 3, "instituts": ["Ipsos", "YouGov"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "YouGov", "fin": "2026-09-21", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10270-pres-iv-yougov-huffpost-23-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.133}, {"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2026-09-09", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10262-pres-enquete-electorale-ipsos-bva-le-monde-13-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.124}], "concentration": 53.2}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal et Lisnard, sans Philippe", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Gabriel Attal", "David Lisnard", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Bruno Retailleau"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 7.18, "q05": 2.81, "q50": 6.75, "q95": 13.02, "p_premier": 0.0002, "p_qualifie": 0.0161, "p_victoire": 0.0032}, "David Lisnard": {"moyenne": 7.47, "q05": 2.99, "q50": 7.04, "q95": 13.41, "p_premier": 0.0003, "p_qualifie": 0.0194, "p_victoire": 0.0098}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 9.9, "q05": 4.64, "q50": 9.49, "q95": 16.52, "p_premier": 0.0015, "p_qualifie": 0.0643, "p_victoire": 0.013}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 16.49, "q05": 9.62, "q50": 16.14, "q95": 24.54, "p_premier": 0.0333, "p_qualifie": 0.5211, "p_victoire": 0.0045}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 31.62, "q05": 22.56, "q50": 31.43, "q95": 41.31, "p_premier": 0.9441, "p_qualifie": 0.9943, "p_victoire": 0.8987}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 15.24, "q05": 8.65, "q50": 14.89, "q95": 23.01, "p_premier": 0.0207, "p_qualifie": 0.3848, "p_victoire": 0.0709}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 12.1}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.5152, "p_a_gagne": 0.0034, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.2908, "a_q95": 42.8519, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.3794, "p_a_gagne": 0.8194, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 45.0038, "a_q95": 66.8594, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0633, "p_a_gagne": 0.1983, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.408, "a_q95": 55.6439, "sonde": true}, {"a": "David Lisnard", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0193, "p_a_gagne": 0.5048, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 5.2335, "a_q95": 94.9787, "sonde": false}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.016, "p_a_gagne": 0.1933, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.0255, "a_q95": 56.5358, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "David Lisnard", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.0987, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0057, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 30 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5991, "detail": "Score attendu : 31,6 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1413, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1512, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.811, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Glucksmann au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5729, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 2, "instituts": ["Elabe", "Harris"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Harris", "fin": "2026-10-21", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10332-pres-iv-toluna-harris-interactive-23-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.163}, {"sondeur": "Elabe", "fin": "2026-10-16", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10324-pres-iv-elabe-17-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.157}], "concentration": 65.7}, {"libelle": "Avec Hollande et Lisnard, sans Glucksmann", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "François Hollande", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "David Lisnard"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 7.05, "q05": 2.29, "q50": 6.5, "q95": 13.76, "p_premier": 0.0006, "p_qualifie": 0.0138, "p_victoire": 0.0027}, "David Lisnard": {"moyenne": 4.41, "q05": 0.92, "q50": 3.83, "q95": 9.91, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.0024, "p_victoire": 0.0012}, "François Hollande": {"moyenne": 7.73, "q05": 2.69, "q50": 7.18, "q95": 14.6, "p_premier": 0.001, "p_qualifie": 0.0194, "p_victoire": 0.0031}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 16.81, "q05": 9.05, "q50": 16.37, "q95": 26.04, "p_premier": 0.0514, "p_qualifie": 0.377, "p_victoire": 0.002}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 31.28, "q05": 21.11, "q50": 31.03, "q95": 42.29, "p_premier": 0.8472, "p_qualifie": 0.976, "p_victoire": 0.8127}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 19.32, "q05": 11.03, "q50": 18.94, "q95": 29.01, "p_premier": 0.0997, "p_qualifie": 0.6113, "p_victoire": 0.1782}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 13.39}}, "duels": [{"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.5862, "p_a_gagne": 0.7344, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.0945, "a_q95": 65.0952, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.3532, "p_a_gagne": 0.004, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3235, "a_q95": 42.7924, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.0221, "p_a_gagne": 0.0102, "a_moyenne": 34.1396, "a_q05": 24.2017, "a_q95": 45.4237, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Hollande", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0183, "p_a_gagne": 0.1437, "a_moyenne": 43.0344, "a_q05": 32.6519, "a_q95": 53.6132, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.013, "p_a_gagne": 0.186, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.3673, "a_q95": 56.1087, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "David Lisnard", "François Hollande", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.604, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.024, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 30 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5632, "detail": "Score attendu : 31,3 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.2566, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1135, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7082, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Philippe devant Mélenchon au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6208, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 2, "instituts": ["Cluster17", "Elabe"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Cluster17", "fin": "2026-09-16", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10273-pres-iv-cluster17-politico-24-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.129}, {"sondeur": "Elabe", "fin": "2026-08-28", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/aout/10245-pres-iv-elabe-29-aout.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.116}], "concentration": 50.7}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal et Hollande, sans Glucksmann et Philippe", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Gabriel Attal", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "François Hollande"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 10.16, "q05": 4.66, "q50": 9.73, "q95": 17.13, "p_premier": 0.0006, "p_qualifie": 0.0695, "p_victoire": 0.0135}, "François Hollande": {"moyenne": 7.24, "q05": 2.72, "q50": 6.76, "q95": 13.32, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.0171, "p_victoire": 0.0024}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 12.11, "q05": 6.08, "q50": 11.7, "q95": 19.59, "p_premier": 0.0018, "p_qualifie": 0.1417, "p_victoire": 0.0283}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 18.94, "q05": 11.4, "q50": 18.62, "q95": 27.67, "p_premier": 0.0299, "p_qualifie": 0.7726, "p_victoire": 0.003}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 36.5, "q05": 26.74, "q50": 36.32, "q95": 46.77, "p_premier": 0.9676, "p_qualifie": 0.9991, "p_victoire": 0.9528}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 15.04}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.759, "p_a_gagne": 0.0035, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.2885, "a_q95": 42.9196, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.139, "p_a_gagne": 0.2007, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.4275, "a_q95": 55.8366, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0681, "p_a_gagne": 0.1963, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.2817, "a_q95": 56.6566, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Hollande", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0167, "p_a_gagne": 0.145, "a_moyenne": 43.0344, "a_q05": 32.4489, "a_q95": 53.705, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "François Hollande", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.2104, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0009, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5856, "detail": "Score attendu : 36,5 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.0773, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1039, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.8863, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Attal au premier tour ?", "p": 0.8373, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 3, "instituts": ["Harris"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Harris", "fin": "2026-10-08", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10305-pres-iv-toluna-harris-interactive-12-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.149}], "concentration": 61.0}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal et Hollande, sans Glucksmann", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "François Hollande", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Gabriel Attal", "Bruno Retailleau"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 6.22, "q05": 2.22, "q50": 5.79, "q95": 11.72, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0048, "p_victoire": 0.0009}, "François Hollande": {"moyenne": 10.11, "q05": 4.81, "q50": 9.71, "q95": 16.8, "p_premier": 0.0003, "p_qualifie": 0.045, "p_victoire": 0.0061}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 6.71, "q05": 2.51, "q50": 6.28, "q95": 12.37, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0068, "p_victoire": 0.0014}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 19.85, "q05": 12.35, "q50": 19.53, "q95": 28.37, "p_premier": 0.0272, "p_qualifie": 0.7569, "p_victoire": 0.0027}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 37.37, "q05": 27.87, "q50": 37.26, "q95": 47.33, "p_premier": 0.9697, "p_qualifie": 0.9991, "p_victoire": 0.9394}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 14.01, "q05": 7.71, "q50": 13.64, "q95": 21.55, "p_premier": 0.0027, "p_qualifie": 0.1874, "p_victoire": 0.0494}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 5.73}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.7414, "p_a_gagne": 0.0036, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.2874, "a_q95": 42.9037, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.1829, "p_a_gagne": 0.7344, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.0585, "a_q95": 65.1505, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Hollande", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.044, "p_a_gagne": 0.1383, "a_moyenne": 43.0344, "a_q05": 32.6285, "a_q95": 53.4564, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0067, "p_a_gagne": 0.2162, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.9921, "a_q95": 55.7202, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "François Hollande", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.1982, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0009, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6492, "detail": "Score attendu : 37,4 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.088, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1035, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.8624, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Philippe au premier tour ?", "p": 0.7975, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 1, "instituts": ["Ifop"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2026-10-19", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10327-pres-barometre-election-v7-ifop-20-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.16}], "concentration": 65.9}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal et Lisnard, sans Retailleau", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "David Lisnard", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Gabriel Attal"], "stats": {"David Lisnard": {"moyenne": 7.19, "q05": 2.83, "q50": 6.76, "q95": 13.01, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.0207, "p_victoire": 0.0102}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 5.25, "q05": 1.66, "q50": 4.8, "q95": 10.39, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0056, "p_victoire": 0.0012}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 15.47, "q05": 8.84, "q50": 15.09, "q95": 23.28, "p_premier": 0.0092, "p_qualifie": 0.478, "p_victoire": 0.0019}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 35.42, "q05": 26.01, "q50": 35.26, "q95": 45.28, "p_premier": 0.984, "p_qualifie": 0.9991, "p_victoire": 0.8767}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 13.03, "q05": 6.96, "q50": 12.68, "q95": 20.42, "p_premier": 0.0033, "p_qualifie": 0.2481, "p_victoire": 0.0443}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 13.03, "q05": 6.95, "q50": 12.67, "q95": 20.38, "p_premier": 0.0034, "p_qualifie": 0.2486, "p_victoire": 0.0658}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 10.6}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.4733, "p_a_gagne": 0.0035, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3092, "a_q95": 42.9189, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.2461, "p_a_gagne": 0.7345, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.1175, "a_q95": 64.9618, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.2455, "p_a_gagne": 0.8205, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 44.9669, "a_q95": 66.8028, "sonde": true}, {"a": "David Lisnard", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0205, "p_a_gagne": 0.4939, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 5.2009, "a_q95": 94.9894, "sonde": false}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0056, "p_a_gagne": 0.209, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.7929, "a_q95": 55.8731, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["David Lisnard", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.2743, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0009, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5176, "detail": "Score attendu : 35,4 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1348, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1688, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7705, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Glucksmann au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6457, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 1, "instituts": ["Ifop"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2026-10-19", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10327-pres-barometre-election-v7-ifop-20-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.16}], "concentration": 65.9}, {"libelle": "Sans Retailleau", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon"], "stats": {"Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 20.0, "q05": 12.37, "q50": 19.67, "q95": 28.69, "p_premier": 0.0422, "p_qualifie": 0.4816, "p_victoire": 0.0021}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 35.2, "q05": 25.72, "q50": 35.05, "q95": 45.29, "p_premier": 0.9141, "p_qualifie": 0.9888, "p_victoire": 0.8545}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 12.16, "q05": 6.22, "q50": 11.76, "q95": 19.41, "p_premier": 0.0015, "p_qualifie": 0.0501, "p_victoire": 0.0093}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 20.0, "q05": 12.39, "q50": 19.66, "q95": 28.67, "p_premier": 0.0423, "p_qualifie": 0.4795, "p_victoire": 0.1342}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 12.65}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.4669, "p_a_gagne": 0.0038, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.2849, "a_q95": 42.9099, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.4649, "p_a_gagne": 0.7337, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.1133, "a_q95": 65.0393, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.0486, "p_a_gagne": 0.8208, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 45.1759, "a_q95": 66.9148, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.0101, "p_a_gagne": 0.0099, "a_moyenne": 34.1396, "a_q05": 23.9481, "a_q95": 44.9964, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.4688, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0112, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5032, "detail": "Score attendu : 35,2 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1945, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1231, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7472, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Philippe au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5005, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 1, "instituts": ["Cluster17"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Cluster17", "fin": "2026-10-15", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10325-pres-focus-droite-et-centre-cluster17-le-point-18-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.156}], "concentration": 63.6}, {"libelle": "Sans Philippe", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Bruno Retailleau", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 17.55, "q05": 10.36, "q50": 17.22, "q95": 25.89, "p_premier": 0.0237, "p_qualifie": 0.2966, "p_victoire": 0.0594}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 20.0, "q05": 12.37, "q50": 19.7, "q95": 28.72, "p_premier": 0.0529, "p_qualifie": 0.5136, "p_victoire": 0.0075}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 34.22, "q05": 24.81, "q50": 34.02, "q95": 44.18, "p_premier": 0.9101, "p_qualifie": 0.9869, "p_victoire": 0.8938}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 16.08, "q05": 9.2, "q50": 15.75, "q95": 24.18, "p_premier": 0.0133, "p_qualifie": 0.2029, "p_victoire": 0.0394}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 12.16}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.4997, "p_a_gagne": 0.0037, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3363, "a_q95": 42.9059, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.286, "p_a_gagne": 0.1919, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 29.9714, "a_q95": 56.3077, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.1958, "p_a_gagne": 0.8145, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 44.9601, "a_q95": 66.8404, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "p_duel": 0.0071, "p_a_gagne": 0.4993, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 4.8783, "a_q95": 94.6124, "sonde": false}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.2876, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0131, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4355, "detail": "Score attendu : 34,2 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1641, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1419, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.8128, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Retailleau au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6271, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 1, "instituts": ["Cluster17"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Cluster17", "fin": "2026-10-15", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10325-pres-focus-droite-et-centre-cluster17-le-point-18-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.156}], "concentration": 63.6}, {"libelle": "Avec Lisnard, sans Philippe et Retailleau", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "David Lisnard", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon"], "stats": {"David Lisnard": {"moyenne": 17.06, "q05": 9.98, "q50": 16.7, "q95": 25.32, "p_premier": 0.0158, "p_qualifie": 0.2578, "p_victoire": 0.128}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 20.49, "q05": 12.79, "q50": 20.16, "q95": 29.24, "p_premier": 0.0512, "p_qualifie": 0.5547, "p_victoire": 0.0065}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 35.2, "q05": 25.68, "q50": 35.04, "q95": 45.23, "p_premier": 0.9214, "p_qualifie": 0.9899, "p_victoire": 0.8273}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 16.08, "q05": 9.24, "q50": 15.72, "q95": 24.17, "p_premier": 0.0116, "p_qualifie": 0.1977, "p_victoire": 0.0382}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 11.18}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.5412, "p_a_gagne": 0.0039, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3254, "a_q95": 42.9063, "sonde": true}, {"a": "David Lisnard", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.2493, "p_a_gagne": 0.5006, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 4.9785, "a_q95": 95.0279, "sonde": false}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.1909, "p_a_gagne": 0.8133, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 44.9052, "a_q95": 66.6742, "sonde": true}, {"a": "David Lisnard", "b": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "p_duel": 0.0051, "p_a_gagne": 0.5108, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 3.8733, "a_q95": 94.2792, "sonde": false}], "cle": ["David Lisnard", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.2514, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0101, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5029, "detail": "Score attendu : 35,2 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.2184, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1373, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.8792, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Lisnard au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6743, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 1, "instituts": ["Cluster17"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Cluster17", "fin": "2026-10-15", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10325-pres-focus-droite-et-centre-cluster17-le-point-18-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.156}], "concentration": 63.6}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal, sans Philippe et Retailleau", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Gabriel Attal", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon"], "stats": {"Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 17.06, "q05": 10.01, "q50": 16.69, "q95": 25.27, "p_premier": 0.017, "p_qualifie": 0.3052, "p_victoire": 0.0617}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 20.0, "q05": 12.38, "q50": 19.69, "q95": 28.74, "p_premier": 0.0447, "p_qualifie": 0.5881, "p_victoire": 0.0052}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 35.2, "q05": 25.75, "q50": 35.06, "q95": 45.19, "p_premier": 0.9344, "p_qualifie": 0.9932, "p_victoire": 0.9119}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 13.63, "q05": 7.31, "q50": 13.24, "q95": 21.2, "p_premier": 0.004, "p_qualifie": 0.1136, "p_victoire": 0.0212}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 14.12}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.5772, "p_a_gagne": 0.0037, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3184, "a_q95": 42.9479, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.2974, "p_a_gagne": 0.1983, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.4258, "a_q95": 55.7405, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.1106, "p_a_gagne": 0.8182, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 44.8854, "a_q95": 66.9387, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.2998, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0068, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5039, "detail": "Score attendu : 35,2 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1358, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1309, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.8231, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Attal au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6533, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 1, "instituts": ["Cluster17"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Cluster17", "fin": "2026-10-15", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/octobre/10325-pres-focus-droite-et-centre-cluster17-le-point-18-octobre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.156}], "concentration": 63.6}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal, Hollande et Lisnard", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Gabriel Attal", "Bruno Retailleau", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "François Hollande", "David Lisnard"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 7.17, "q05": 2.52, "q50": 6.65, "q95": 13.54, "p_premier": 0.0006, "p_qualifie": 0.0556, "p_victoire": 0.0106}, "David Lisnard": {"moyenne": 2.37, "q05": 0.22, "q50": 1.82, "q95": 6.36, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0017, "p_victoire": 0.0008}, "François Hollande": {"moyenne": 4.29, "q05": 0.96, "q50": 3.75, "q95": 9.52, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.0101, "p_victoire": 0.0014}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 8.13, "q05": 3.1, "q50": 7.61, "q95": 14.82, "p_premier": 0.0011, "p_qualifie": 0.0857, "p_victoire": 0.0165}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 14.84, "q05": 7.86, "q50": 14.44, "q95": 23.32, "p_premier": 0.0263, "p_qualifie": 0.6493, "p_victoire": 0.0027}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 32.11, "q05": 22.27, "q50": 31.89, "q95": 42.71, "p_premier": 0.9685, "p_qualifie": 0.9984, "p_victoire": 0.9166}, "Raphaël Glucksmann": {"moyenne": 5.25, "q05": 1.44, "q50": 4.74, "q95": 10.88, "p_premier": 0.0002, "p_qualifie": 0.0198, "p_victoire": 0.0036}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 10.04, "q05": 4.36, "q50": 9.54, "q95": 17.37, "p_premier": 0.0032, "p_qualifie": 0.1794, "p_victoire": 0.0476}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 15.8}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.6456, "p_a_gagne": 0.0037, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3376, "a_q95": 42.8504, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.1778, "p_a_gagne": 0.7373, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.1231, "a_q95": 65.0369, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0851, "p_a_gagne": 0.192, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.3956, "a_q95": 55.6597, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0551, "p_a_gagne": 0.1903, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.248, "a_q95": 56.3115, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Raphaël Glucksmann", "p_duel": 0.0196, "p_a_gagne": 0.8177, "a_moyenne": 56.054, "a_q05": 45.3695, "a_q95": 66.5223, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Hollande", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.01, "p_a_gagne": 0.1375, "a_moyenne": 43.0344, "a_q05": 32.1161, "a_q95": 53.626, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "David Lisnard", "François Hollande", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Raphaël Glucksmann", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.3209, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0016, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 30 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6207, "detail": "Score attendu : 32,1 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1103, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1513, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.8395, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Philippe au premier tour ?", "p": 0.7715, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 1, "instituts": ["YouGov"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "YouGov", "fin": "2026-09-21", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10270-pres-iv-yougov-huffpost-23-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.133}], "concentration": 55.6}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal, Hollande et Lisnard, sans Glucksmann", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Gabriel Attal", "Bruno Retailleau", "François Hollande", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "David Lisnard"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 7.21, "q05": 2.44, "q50": 6.67, "q95": 13.83, "p_premier": 0.0009, "p_qualifie": 0.026, "p_victoire": 0.0051}, "David Lisnard": {"moyenne": 2.4, "q05": 0.21, "q50": 1.83, "q95": 6.56, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0007, "p_victoire": 0.0003}, "François Hollande": {"moyenne": 7.21, "q05": 2.43, "q50": 6.67, "q95": 13.87, "p_premier": 0.0009, "p_qualifie": 0.0269, "p_victoire": 0.0042}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 8.17, "q05": 2.99, "q50": 7.63, "q95": 15.14, "p_premier": 0.0017, "p_qualifie": 0.0415, "p_victoire": 0.0084}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 15.87, "q05": 8.42, "q50": 15.43, "q95": 24.88, "p_premier": 0.0437, "p_qualifie": 0.4595, "p_victoire": 0.0022}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 31.25, "q05": 21.18, "q50": 31.01, "q95": 42.14, "p_premier": 0.9094, "p_qualifie": 0.9881, "p_victoire": 0.8526}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 15.87, "q05": 8.42, "q50": 15.43, "q95": 24.85, "p_premier": 0.0434, "p_qualifie": 0.4573, "p_victoire": 0.1271}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 12.02}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.4477, "p_a_gagne": 0.0036, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.2749, "a_q95": 42.8665, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.4454, "p_a_gagne": 0.7373, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.1594, "a_q95": 65.0456, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0402, "p_a_gagne": 0.1962, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.1295, "a_q95": 55.6438, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Hollande", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0261, "p_a_gagne": 0.1474, "a_moyenne": 43.0344, "a_q05": 32.4357, "a_q95": 53.819, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0254, "p_a_gagne": 0.1909, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.1981, "a_q95": 56.4823, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.0095, "p_a_gagne": 0.0068, "a_moyenne": 34.1396, "a_q05": 24.1743, "a_q95": 45.0483, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "David Lisnard", "François Hollande", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.5139, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0119, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 30 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5623, "detail": "Score attendu : 31,2 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1988, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1401, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.748, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Philippe au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5006, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 1, "instituts": ["OpinionWay"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "OpinionWay", "fin": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10260-pres-iv-opinionway-cnews-11-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.125}], "concentration": 51.9}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal et Lisnard, sans Glucksmann", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe", "Gabriel Attal", "Bruno Retailleau", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "David Lisnard"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 7.25, "q05": 2.45, "q50": 6.71, "q95": 13.94, "p_premier": 0.0007, "p_qualifie": 0.0246, "p_victoire": 0.0048}, "David Lisnard": {"moyenne": 2.42, "q05": 0.21, "q50": 1.83, "q95": 6.6, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0006, "p_victoire": 0.0003}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 8.21, "q05": 3.04, "q50": 7.68, "q95": 15.27, "p_premier": 0.0012, "p_qualifie": 0.0386, "p_victoire": 0.008}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 16.91, "q05": 9.2, "q50": 16.47, "q95": 26.08, "p_premier": 0.0475, "p_qualifie": 0.5193, "p_victoire": 0.0024}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 32.37, "q05": 22.14, "q50": 32.12, "q95": 43.43, "p_premier": 0.9148, "p_qualifie": 0.9894, "p_victoire": 0.8629}, "Édouard Philippe": {"moyenne": 15.94, "q05": 8.46, "q50": 15.52, "q95": 24.99, "p_premier": 0.0357, "p_qualifie": 0.4275, "p_victoire": 0.1216}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 16.91}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.507, "p_a_gagne": 0.0038, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.3223, "a_q95": 42.8753, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Marine Le Pen", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.4158, "p_a_gagne": 0.7297, "a_moyenne": 54.1926, "a_q05": 43.057, "a_q95": 65.1525, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0375, "p_a_gagne": 0.1971, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.2815, "a_q95": 55.64, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0238, "p_a_gagne": 0.189, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.3659, "a_q95": 56.7275, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Édouard Philippe", "p_duel": 0.009, "p_a_gagne": 0.0112, "a_moyenne": 34.1396, "a_q05": 24.1589, "a_q95": 44.7776, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "David Lisnard", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Édouard Philippe"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.4807, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0106, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 30 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.6282, "detail": "Score attendu : 32,4 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1887, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1282, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7693, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Philippe au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5482, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 1, "instituts": ["OpinionWay"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "OpinionWay", "fin": "2026-09-10", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10260-pres-iv-opinionway-cnews-11-septembre.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.125}], "concentration": 51.6}, {"libelle": "Avec Attal, Hollande et Lisnard, sans Glucksmann et Philippe", "candidats": ["Marine Le Pen", "Gabriel Attal", "Bruno Retailleau", "François Hollande", "David Lisnard", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon"], "stats": {"Bruno Retailleau": {"moyenne": 9.19, "q05": 3.49, "q50": 8.61, "q95": 16.8, "p_premier": 0.0024, "p_qualifie": 0.1187, "p_victoire": 0.0226}, "David Lisnard": {"moyenne": 3.89, "q05": 0.65, "q50": 3.27, "q95": 9.29, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.0082, "p_victoire": 0.0041}, "François Hollande": {"moyenne": 8.23, "q05": 2.9, "q50": 7.65, "q95": 15.52, "p_premier": 0.0014, "p_qualifie": 0.0845, "p_victoire": 0.0122}, "Gabriel Attal": {"moyenne": 12.57, "q05": 5.77, "q50": 12.04, "q95": 21.16, "p_premier": 0.0111, "p_qualifie": 0.3294, "p_victoire": 0.0643}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 14.01, "q05": 6.8, "q50": 13.5, "q95": 22.98, "p_premier": 0.0189, "p_qualifie": 0.4623, "p_victoire": 0.0029}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 33.76, "q05": 23.07, "q50": 33.56, "q95": 45.35, "p_premier": 0.966, "p_qualifie": 0.9969, "p_victoire": 0.8939}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 18.35}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.4547, "p_a_gagne": 0.0039, "a_moyenne": 32.204, "a_q05": 22.2629, "a_q95": 42.8656, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Gabriel Attal", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.3235, "p_a_gagne": 0.1952, "a_moyenne": 43.8592, "a_q05": 32.3554, "a_q95": 55.6078, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Bruno Retailleau", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.1166, "p_a_gagne": 0.19, "a_moyenne": 43.0166, "a_q05": 30.0983, "a_q95": 56.2594, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Hollande", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.083, "p_a_gagne": 0.1428, "a_moyenne": 43.0344, "a_q05": 32.504, "a_q95": 53.7723, "sonde": true}, {"a": "David Lisnard", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0081, "p_a_gagne": 0.5025, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 4.8856, "a_q95": 94.5424, "sonde": false}], "cle": ["Bruno Retailleau", "David Lisnard", "François Hollande", "Gabriel Attal", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.4535, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.0031, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Le Pen au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4172, "detail": "Score attendu : 33,8 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1301, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1597, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7903, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mélenchon devant Attal au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5788, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 1, "instituts": ["Elabe"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Elabe", "fin": "2026-08-28", "source": "https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/aout/10245-pres-iv-elabe-29-aout.pdf", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.116}], "concentration": 48.0}], "timeline": [{"date": "2025-01-05", "victoire": {"Gabriel Attal": 0.2282, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.1158, "Laurent Wauquiez": 0.0757, "Marine Le Pen": 0.4894, "Marine Tondelier": 0.0428, "Olivier Faure": 0.0481}, "qualifie": {"Gabriel Attal": 0.5047, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.2665, "Laurent Wauquiez": 0.172, "Marine Le Pen": 0.8485, "Marine Tondelier": 0.0995, "Olivier Faure": 0.1088}, "premier_tour": {"Gabriel Attal": [3.12, 18.89, 43.17], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [0.91, 12.45, 33.25], "Laurent Wauquiez": [0.32, 9.22, 27.89], "Marine Le Pen": [11.29, 33.38, 60.13], "Marine Tondelier": [0.06, 6.41, 22.29], "Olivier Faure": [0.08, 6.81, 23.44]}}, {"date": "2025-01-12", "victoire": {"Gabriel 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[3.12, 18.89, 43.17], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [0.91, 12.45, 33.25], "Laurent Wauquiez": [0.32, 9.22, 27.89], "Marine Le Pen": [11.29, 33.38, 60.13], "Marine Tondelier": [0.06, 6.41, 22.29], "Olivier Faure": [0.08, 6.81, 23.44]}}, {"date": "2025-01-26", "victoire": {"Gabriel Attal": 0.2282, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.1158, "Laurent Wauquiez": 0.0757, "Marine Le Pen": 0.4894, "Marine Tondelier": 0.0428, "Olivier Faure": 0.0481}, "qualifie": {"Gabriel Attal": 0.5047, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.2665, "Laurent Wauquiez": 0.172, "Marine Le Pen": 0.8485, "Marine Tondelier": 0.0995, "Olivier Faure": 0.1088}, "premier_tour": {"Gabriel Attal": [3.12, 18.89, 43.17], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [0.91, 12.45, 33.25], "Laurent Wauquiez": [0.32, 9.22, 27.89], "Marine Le Pen": [11.29, 33.38, 60.13], "Marine Tondelier": [0.06, 6.41, 22.29], "Olivier Faure": [0.08, 6.81, 23.44]}}, {"date": "2025-02-02", "victoire": {"Gabriel Attal": 0.2282, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.1158, "Laurent Wauquiez": 0.0757, "Marine Le Pen": 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Glucksmann": 0.2074, "Édouard Philippe": 0.4938, "Éric Zemmour": 0.0647}, "premier_tour": {"Bruno Retailleau": [1.24, 11.76, 30.11], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [1.71, 13.22, 31.83], "Jordan Bardella": [9.51, 28.19, 51.27], "Raphaël Glucksmann": [1.17, 11.49, 29.59], "Édouard Philippe": [4.45, 19.55, 40.72], "Éric Zemmour": [0.07, 5.61, 19.13]}}, {"date": "2025-06-29", "victoire": {"Bruno Retailleau": 0.1492, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0718, "Jordan Bardella": 0.4585, "Olivier Faure": 0.0325, "Édouard Philippe": 0.2623, "Éric Zemmour": 0.0257}, "qualifie": {"Bruno Retailleau": 0.3445, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.2548, "Jordan Bardella": 0.7683, "Olivier Faure": 0.0672, "Édouard Philippe": 0.5111, "Éric Zemmour": 0.0542}, "premier_tour": {"Bruno Retailleau": [2.79, 15.74, 35.58], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [1.8, 13.19, 31.84], "Jordan Bardella": [9.77, 28.47, 51.61], "Olivier Faure": [0.1, 5.98, 19.69], "Édouard Philippe": [4.87, 19.99, 41.37], "Éric Zemmour": [0.05, 5.13, 17.92]}}, {"date": 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Lisnard": 5.9, "Bruno Retailleau": 5.9, "Marine Le Pen": 35.6, "Éric Zemmour": 4.0}}], "evenements": [{"date": "2025-03-31", "texte": "Marine Le Pen est condamnée à une peine d'inéligibilité de 5 ans avec exécution provisoire"}, {"date": "2025-04-10", "texte": "Philippe Poutou renonce à briguer une quatrième candidature à l'élection présidentielle française"}, {"date": "2025-05-18", "texte": "Bruno Retailleau est élu président des Républicains"}, {"date": "2025-06-06", "texte": "Olivier Faure est réélu premier secrétaire du Parti socialiste"}, {"date": "2025-07-02", "texte": "L'Après, Debout !, Les Écologistes, Génération.s et le Parti socialiste lancent le Front populaire 2027"}, {"date": "2025-09-08", "texte": "Le gouvernement Bayrou tombe après la non-confiance de l'Assemblée Nationale"}, {"date": "2025-09-09", "texte": "Sébastien Lecornu est nommé Premier ministre"}, {"date": "2025-10-06", "texte": "Sébastien Lecornu remet sa démission à Emmanuel Macron qui l'accepte"}, {"date": "2025-10-10", "texte": "Sébastien Lecornu est à nouveau nommé Premier ministre"}, {"date": "2025-10-22", "texte": "Marine Tondelier annonce sa candidature à l'élection présidentielle de 2027 dans le cadre d'une primaire à gauche"}, {"date": "2025-11-15", "texte": "Le Front Populaire 2027 annonce l'organisation d'une primaire prévue le 11 octobre 2026"}, {"date": "2025-12-08", "texte": "Nathalie Arthaud, porte-parole de Lutte ouvrière (LO), déclare sa candidature"}, {"date": "2026-04-19", "texte": "Bruno Retailleau est désigné candidat des Républicains (LR) par les adhérents du parti"}, {"date": "2026-05-03", "texte": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon est désigné candidat de la France insoumise (LFI) par les élus du mouvement"}, {"date": "2026-05-22", "texte": "Gabriel Attal, secrétaire général de Renaissance (RE), se déclare candidat"}, {"date": "2026-07-07", "texte": "Marine Le Pen, cheffe de file du Rassemblement national (RN), officialise sa candidature à la suite de la réduction de sa période 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