{"annee": 2017, "passee": true, "date_premier_tour": "2017-04-23", "date_second_tour": "2017-05-07", "date_prevision": "2017-04-22", "jours_avant": 1, "candidats": {"Emmanuel Macron": {"court": "Macron", "parti": "EM", "famille": "Centre", "ordre": 6, "slot": 4}, "François Fillon": {"court": "Fillon", "parti": "LR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Marine Le Pen": {"court": "Le Pen", "parti": "RN", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 7}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"court": "Mélenchon", "parti": "LFI", "famille": "Gauche radicale", "ordre": 2, "slot": 8}, "Benoît Hamon": {"court": "Hamon", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Alain Juppé": {"court": "Juppé", "parti": "LR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Nicolas Sarkozy": {"court": "Sarkozy", "parti": "UMP", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "François Hollande": {"court": "Hollande", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "François Bayrou": {"court": "Bayrou", "parti": "MoDem", "famille": "Centre", "ordre": 6, "slot": 6}, "Manuel Valls": {"court": "Valls", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan": {"court": "Dupont-Aignan", "parti": "DLF", "famille": "Souverainiste", "ordre": 9, "slot": 0}, "Jean Lassalle": {"court": "Lassalle", "parti": "RES", "famille": "Souverainiste", "ordre": 9, "slot": 0}, "Philippe Poutou": {"court": "Poutou", "parti": "NPA", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "François Asselineau": {"court": "Asselineau", "parti": "UPR", "famille": "Souverainiste", "ordre": 9, "slot": 0}, "Nathalie Arthaud": {"court": "Arthaud", "parti": "LO", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "Jacques Cheminade": {"court": "Cheminade", "parti": "S&P", "famille": "Autre", "ordre": 11, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["Emmanuel Macron", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "François Fillon", "Marine Le Pen", "Benoît Hamon"], "stats": {"Benoît Hamon": {"moyenne": 7.64, "q05": 5.58, "q50": 7.58, "q95": 9.96, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Emmanuel Macron": {"moyenne": 23.97, "q05": 20.51, "q50": 23.92, "q95": 27.56, "p_premier": 0.6496, "p_qualifie": 0.914, "p_victoire": 0.9139}, "François Fillon": {"moyenne": 19.17, "q05": 16.01, "q50": 19.12, "q95": 22.51, "p_premier": 0.034, "p_qualifie": 0.1673, "p_victoire": 0.0402}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 19.15, "q05": 15.99, "q50": 19.1, "q95": 22.49, "p_premier": 0.0338, "p_qualifie": 0.1648, "p_victoire": 0.0457}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 22.26, "q05": 18.91, "q50": 22.21, "q95": 25.78, "p_premier": 0.2826, "p_qualifie": 0.7539, "p_victoire": 0.0002}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 7.81}}, "duels": [{"a": "Emmanuel Macron", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.6733, "p_a_gagne": 1.0, "a_moyenne": 63.8069, "a_q05": 59.1966, "a_q95": 68.3195, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Emmanuel Macron", "b": "François Fillon", "p_duel": 0.1216, "p_a_gagne": 1.0, "a_moyenne": 65.1447, "a_q05": 60.3551, "a_q95": 69.8272, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Emmanuel Macron", "b": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "p_duel": 0.1191, "p_a_gagne": 0.9993, "a_moyenne": 58.9901, "a_q05": 54.5335, "a_q95": 63.3436, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Fillon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0403, "p_a_gagne": 0.9965, "a_moyenne": 57.9858, "a_q05": 53.0492, "a_q95": 62.8653, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "b": "Marine Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0403, "p_a_gagne": 0.999, "a_moyenne": 59.0784, "a_q05": 54.4476, "a_q95": 63.6075, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Fillon", "b": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "p_duel": 0.0054, "p_a_gagne": 0.0033, "a_moyenne": 42.4741, "a_q05": 37.9406, "a_q95": 46.9107, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Benoît Hamon", "Emmanuel Macron", "François Fillon", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.8352, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.2461, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Macron au-dessus de 25 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.3096, "detail": "Score attendu : 24,0 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.3241, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.3009, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.9808, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Le Pen devant Fillon au premier tour ?", "p": 0.8313, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 71, "instituts": ["BVA", "Elabe", "Harris Interactive", "Ifop-Fiducial", "Ipsos", "Kantar Sofres", "Odoxa", "OpinionWay", "Scan Research"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "OpinionWay", "fin": "2017-04-21", "source": "Sondage OpinionWay/ORPI pour Les Echos & Radio Classique", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.994}, {"sondeur": "Odoxa", "fin": "2017-04-21", "source": "Sondage Odoxa avec Dentsu Consulting pour Le Point", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.994}, {"sondeur": "Ifop-Fiducial", "fin": "2017-04-21", "source": "Ifop – Fiducial pour CNEWS, Paris Match et Sud Radio", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.994}, {"sondeur": "BVA", "fin": "2017-04-21", "source": "BVA", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.994}, {"sondeur": "Elabe", "fin": "2017-04-20", "source": "ELABE pour BFMTV et L’EXPRESS", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2017-04-20", "source": "©Ipsos. PRÉSIDENTIELLE 2017", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "Harris Interactive", "fin": "2017-04-19", "source": "Harris Interactive pour france télévisions et L’ÉMISSION POLITIQUE", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.983}, {"sondeur": "Kantar Sofres", "fin": "2017-04-17", "source": "Kantar Sofres - OnePoint", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.969}, {"sondeur": "Scan Research", "fin": "2017-04-15", "source": "Scan Research – Le Terrain  2017", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.954}], "concentration": 395.3}], "timeline": [{"date": "2016-10-08", "victoire": {"Alain Juppé": 0.8199, "Emmanuel Macron": 0.0604, "François Hollande": 0.0157, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0267, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0767, "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan": 0.0007}, "qualifie": {"Alain Juppé": 0.88, "Emmanuel Macron": 0.1226, "François Hollande": 0.0335, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0536, "Marine Le Pen": 0.9091, "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan": 0.0011}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Juppé": [16.44, 25.98, 36.59], "Emmanuel Macron": [7.31, 14.45, 23.13], "François Hollande": 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Dupont-Aignan": 0.0003}, "qualifie": {"Alain Juppé": 0.9297, "Emmanuel Macron": 0.075, "François Hollande": 0.0279, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0528, "Marine Le Pen": 0.9141, "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan": 0.0006}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Juppé": [18.04, 27.6, 38.16], "Emmanuel Macron": [6.59, 13.28, 21.5], "François Hollande": [4.56, 10.46, 18.06], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [5.83, 12.16, 20.19], "Marine Le Pen": [17.34, 26.6, 37.04], "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan": [0.89, 4.24, 9.44]}}, {"date": "2016-10-29", "victoire": {"Alain Juppé": 0.8759, "Emmanuel Macron": 0.0371, "François Hollande": 0.0103, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0254, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0511, "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan": 0.0002}, "qualifie": {"Alain Juppé": 0.9319, "Emmanuel Macron": 0.0736, "François Hollande": 0.0217, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0514, "Marine Le Pen": 0.921, "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan": 0.0004}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Juppé": [18.17, 27.6, 37.94], "Emmanuel Macron": [6.79, 13.42, 21.51], "François Hollande": [4.47, 10.2, 17.55], 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{"Emmanuel Macron": [7.92, 13.42, 19.81], "François Bayrou": [2.71, 6.32, 11.02], "François Fillon": [19.35, 26.78, 34.88], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [7.74, 13.09, 19.48], "Manuel Valls": [5.58, 10.35, 16.16], "Marine Le Pen": [16.71, 23.79, 31.64]}}, {"date": "2016-12-24", "victoire": {"Emmanuel Macron": 0.0381, "François Bayrou": 0.0002, "François Fillon": 0.9191, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.027, "Manuel Valls": 0.0058, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0097}, "qualifie": {"Emmanuel Macron": 0.0595, "François Bayrou": 0.0004, "François Fillon": 0.9656, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0518, "Manuel Valls": 0.0117, "Marine Le Pen": 0.9109}, "premier_tour": {"Emmanuel Macron": [7.92, 13.42, 19.81], "François Bayrou": [2.71, 6.32, 11.02], "François Fillon": [19.35, 26.78, 34.88], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [7.74, 13.09, 19.48], "Manuel Valls": [5.58, 10.35, 16.16], "Marine Le Pen": [16.71, 23.79, 31.64]}}, {"date": "2016-12-31", "victoire": {"Emmanuel Macron": 0.0381, "François Bayrou": 0.0002, "François Fillon": 0.9191, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.027, "Manuel Valls": 0.0058, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0097}, "qualifie": {"Emmanuel Macron": 0.0595, "François Bayrou": 0.0004, "François Fillon": 0.9656, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0518, "Manuel Valls": 0.0117, "Marine Le Pen": 0.9109}, "premier_tour": {"Emmanuel Macron": [7.92, 13.42, 19.81], "François Bayrou": [2.71, 6.32, 11.02], "François Fillon": [19.35, 26.78, 34.88], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [7.74, 13.09, 19.48], "Manuel Valls": [5.58, 10.35, 16.16], "Marine Le Pen": [16.71, 23.79, 31.64]}}, {"date": "2017-01-07", "victoire": {"Emmanuel Macron": 0.0439, "François Bayrou": 0.0002, "François Fillon": 0.9133, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0274, "Manuel Valls": 0.0056, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0096}, "qualifie": {"Emmanuel Macron": 0.0595, "François Bayrou": 0.0004, "François Fillon": 0.9656, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0518, "Manuel Valls": 0.0117, "Marine Le Pen": 0.9109}, "premier_tour": {"Emmanuel Macron": [7.92, 13.42, 19.81], "François Bayrou": [2.71, 6.32, 11.02], "François 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