{"annee": 2012, "passee": true, "date_premier_tour": "2012-04-22", "date_second_tour": "2012-05-06", "date_prevision": "2012-04-21", "jours_avant": 1, "candidats": {"François Hollande": {"court": "Hollande", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Nicolas Sarkozy": {"court": "Sarkozy", "parti": "UMP", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Marine Le Pen": {"court": "Le Pen", "parti": "RN", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 7}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"court": "Mélenchon", "parti": "LFI", "famille": "Gauche radicale", "ordre": 2, "slot": 8}, "François Bayrou": {"court": "Bayrou", "parti": "MoDem", "famille": "Centre", "ordre": 6, "slot": 4}, "Martine Aubry": {"court": "Aubry", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Jean-Louis Borloo": {"court": "Borloo", "parti": "PR", "famille": "Centre", "ordre": 6, "slot": 2}, "Eva Joly": {"court": "Joly", "parti": "EELV", "famille": "Écologiste", "ordre": 5, "slot": 6}, "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan": {"court": "Dupont-Aignan", "parti": "DLF", "famille": "Souverainiste", "ordre": 9, "slot": 0}, "Philippe Poutou": {"court": "Poutou", "parti": "NPA", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "Nathalie Arthaud": {"court": "Arthaud", "parti": "LO", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "Jacques Cheminade": {"court": "Cheminade", "parti": "S&P", "famille": "Autre", "ordre": 11, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["François Hollande", "Nicolas Sarkozy", "Marine Le Pen", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "François Bayrou"], "stats": {"François Bayrou": {"moyenne": 10.03, "q05": 7.66, "q50": 9.96, "q95": 12.63, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "François Hollande": {"moyenne": 27.96, "q05": 24.3, "q50": 27.92, "q95": 31.73, "p_premier": 0.6679, "p_qualifie": 0.9999, "p_victoire": 0.9779}, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": {"moyenne": 14.0, "q05": 11.23, "q50": 13.94, "q95": 16.98, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Marine Le Pen": {"moyenne": 15.78, "q05": 12.88, "q50": 15.73, "q95": 18.9, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0006, "p_victoire": 0.0003}, "Nicolas Sarkozy": {"moyenne": 26.35, "q05": 22.78, "q50": 26.31, "q95": 30.07, "p_premier": 0.3321, "p_qualifie": 0.9994, "p_victoire": 0.0217}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 5.88}}, "duels": [{"a": "François Hollande", "b": "Nicolas Sarkozy", "p_duel": 0.9993, "p_a_gagne": 0.9783, "a_moyenne": 55.9044, "a_q05": 51.1041, "a_q95": 60.6673, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["François Bayrou", "François Hollande", "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "Marine Le Pen", "Nicolas Sarkozy"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.0001, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.9994, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Hollande au-dessus de 30 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.1818, "detail": "Score attendu : 28,0 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.3397, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.0018, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.622, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Sarkozy devant Le Pen au premier tour ?", "p": 0.9995, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 81, "instituts": ["BVA", "CSA", "Harris", "Ifop", "Ipsos", "LH2", "OpinionWay", "Sofres", "TNS Sofres"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2012-04-19", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "CSA", "fin": "2012-04-19", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "BVA", "fin": "2012-04-19", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "Harris", "fin": "2012-04-19", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "TNS Sofres", "fin": "2012-04-19", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "LH2", "fin": "2012-04-18", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.983}, {"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2012-04-17", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.977}, {"sondeur": "OpinionWay", "fin": "2012-04-17", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.977}, {"sondeur": "Sofres", "fin": "2012-04-14", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.954}], "concentration": 394.1}], "timeline": [{"date": "2011-10-08", "victoire": {"Eva Joly": 0.0032, "François Bayrou": 0.0049, "Jean-Louis Borloo": 0.0048, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0019, "Marine Le Pen": 0.1358, "Martine Aubry": 0.5699, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.2795}, 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17.55, 24.91], "Nicolas Sarkozy": [18.75, 26.54, 35.06]}}, {"date": "2011-12-03", "victoire": {"Eva Joly": 0.0, "François Bayrou": 0.0001, "François Hollande": 0.8804, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0002, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0536, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.0656}, "qualifie": {"Eva Joly": 0.0001, "François Bayrou": 0.0004, "François Hollande": 0.9763, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0004, "Marine Le Pen": 0.1052, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.9176}, "premier_tour": {"Eva Joly": [1.83, 5.1, 9.57], "François Bayrou": [3.4, 7.42, 12.7], "François Hollande": [23.07, 31.08, 39.68], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [3.09, 6.95, 11.99], "Marine Le Pen": [10.95, 17.23, 24.36], "Nicolas Sarkozy": [19.22, 26.84, 35.02]}}, {"date": "2011-12-10", "victoire": {"Eva Joly": 0.0001, "François Bayrou": 0.0002, "François Hollande": 0.8776, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0003, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0608, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.061}, "qualifie": {"Eva Joly": 0.0001, "François Bayrou": 0.0008, "François Hollande": 0.983, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0005, "Marine 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"François Hollande": [23.22, 30.61, 38.73], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [3.35, 7.1, 11.81], "Marine Le Pen": [11.2, 17.13, 23.77], "Nicolas Sarkozy": [18.6, 25.56, 33.12]}}, {"date": "2012-01-07", "victoire": {"Eva Joly": 0.0, "François Bayrou": 0.0023, "François Hollande": 0.8702, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0001, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0527, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.0747}, "qualifie": {"Eva Joly": 0.0, "François Bayrou": 0.005, "François Hollande": 0.9832, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0002, "Marine Le Pen": 0.102, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.9096}, "premier_tour": {"Eva Joly": [1.54, 4.27, 8.1], "François Bayrou": [6.38, 11.0, 16.75], "François Hollande": [23.43, 30.78, 38.88], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [3.32, 7.04, 11.74], "Marine Le Pen": [11.33, 17.17, 23.66], "Nicolas Sarkozy": [18.98, 25.98, 33.42]}}, {"date": "2012-01-14", "victoire": {"Eva Joly": 0.0, "François Bayrou": 0.0029, "François Hollande": 0.872, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0001, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0535, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.0715}, "qualifie": {"Eva 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{"François Bayrou": 0.0079, "François Hollande": 0.8589, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0757, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.0575}, "qualifie": {"François Bayrou": 0.0148, "François Hollande": 0.9784, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0002, "Marine Le Pen": 0.1516, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.855}, "premier_tour": {"François Bayrou": [8.97, 13.49, 18.71], "François Hollande": [22.73, 29.09, 35.8], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [4.42, 7.85, 12.04], "Marine Le Pen": [12.88, 18.12, 23.9], "Nicolas Sarkozy": [18.35, 24.19, 30.55]}}, {"date": "2012-02-04", "victoire": {"François Bayrou": 0.0054, "François Hollande": 0.9035, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0496, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.0414}, "qualifie": {"François Bayrou": 0.0101, "François Hollande": 0.9917, "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": 0.0001, "Marine Le Pen": 0.0975, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.9006}, "premier_tour": {"François Bayrou": [9.19, 13.54, 18.45], "François Hollande": [24.31, 30.4, 36.88], "Jean-Luc Mélenchon": [4.78, 8.16, 12.22], "Marine Le Pen": 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