{"annee": 2007, "passee": true, "date_premier_tour": "2007-04-22", "date_second_tour": "2007-05-06", "date_prevision": "2007-04-21", "jours_avant": 1, "candidats": {"Nicolas Sarkozy": {"court": "Sarkozy", "parti": "UMP", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Ségolène Royal": {"court": "Royal", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "François Bayrou": {"court": "Bayrou", "parti": "MoDem", "famille": "Centre", "ordre": 6, "slot": 4}, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": {"court": "J.-M. Le Pen", "parti": "FN", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 7}, "Olivier Besancenot": {"court": "Besancenot", "parti": "LCR", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 8}, "Philippe de Villiers": {"court": "de Villiers", "parti": "MPF", "famille": "Souverainiste", "ordre": 9, "slot": 0}, "Marie-George Buffet": {"court": "Buffet", "parti": "PCF", "famille": "Communiste", "ordre": 1, "slot": 0}, "Dominique Voynet": {"court": "Voynet", "parti": "VEC", "famille": "Écologiste", "ordre": 5, "slot": 0}, "Arlette Laguiller": {"court": "Laguiller", "parti": "LO", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "José Bové": {"court": "Bové", "parti": "ALT", "famille": "Gauche radicale", "ordre": 2, "slot": 0}, "Frédéric Nihous": {"court": "Nihous", "parti": "CPNT", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 0}, "Gérard Schivardi": {"court": "Schivardi", "parti": "PT", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["Nicolas Sarkozy", "Ségolène Royal", "François Bayrou", "Jean-Marie Le Pen"], "stats": {"François Bayrou": {"moyenne": 18.46, "q05": 15.33, "q50": 18.41, "q95": 21.76, "p_premier": 0.0013, "p_qualifie": 0.0657, "p_victoire": 0.0327}, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": {"moyenne": 13.56, "q05": 10.83, "q50": 13.5, "q95": 16.5, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0004, "p_victoire": 0.0002}, "Nicolas Sarkozy": {"moyenne": 28.11, "q05": 24.44, "q50": 28.07, "q95": 31.9, "p_premier": 0.9036, "p_qualifie": 0.9986, "p_victoire": 0.7792}, "Ségolène Royal": {"moyenne": 23.39, "q05": 19.95, "q50": 23.34, "q95": 26.96, "p_premier": 0.0951, "p_qualifie": 0.9353, "p_victoire": 0.188}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 16.48}}, "duels": [{"a": "Nicolas Sarkozy", "b": "Ségolène Royal", "p_duel": 0.9339, "p_a_gagne": 0.7995, "a_moyenne": 52.2638, "a_q05": 47.8366, "a_q95": 56.6801, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Bayrou", "b": "Nicolas Sarkozy", "p_duel": 0.0643, "p_a_gagne": 0.4975, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 4.9398, "a_q95": 95.0359, "sonde": false}], "cle": ["François Bayrou", "Jean-Marie Le Pen", "Nicolas Sarkozy", "Ségolène Royal"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.0647, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.9996, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Sarkozy au-dessus de 30 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.2015, "detail": "Score attendu : 28,1 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.2765, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.0823, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.2076, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Royal devant Bayrou au premier tour ?", "p": 0.9353, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 39, "instituts": ["BVA", "CSA", "Ifop", "Ipsos", "LH2"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2007-04-20", "source": "Ipsos", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.994}, {"sondeur": "BVA", "fin": "2007-04-19", "source": "BVA", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2007-04-18", "source": "Ifop", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.983}, {"sondeur": "LH2", "fin": "2007-04-16", "source": "LH3", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.969}, {"sondeur": "CSA", "fin": "2007-04-14", "source": "CSA", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.954}], "concentration": 392.4}], "timeline": [{"date": "2006-10-07", "victoire": {"François Bayrou": 0.0009, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.003, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.5159, "Olivier Besancenot": 0.0003, "Ségolène Royal": 0.4799}, "qualifie": {"François Bayrou": 0.0019, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0065, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.9992, "Olivier Besancenot": 0.0004, "Ségolène Royal": 0.992}, "premier_tour": {"François Bayrou": [2.66, 7.25, 13.46], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [4.21, 9.68, 16.72], "Nicolas Sarkozy": [27.4, 37.45, 48.03], "Olivier Besancenot": [1.52, 5.3, 10.79], "Ségolène Royal": [19.89, 29.17, 39.24]}}, {"date": "2006-10-14", "victoire": {"François Bayrou": 0.0024, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0089, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.6673, "Olivier Besancenot": 0.0, "Ségolène Royal": 0.3213}, "qualifie": {"François Bayrou": 0.0053, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.018, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.9946, "Olivier Besancenot": 0.0001, "Ségolène Royal": 0.982}, "premier_tour": {"François Bayrou": [4.34, 9.68, 16.46], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [6.1, 12.11, 19.6], "Nicolas Sarkozy": [24.17, 33.58, 43.77], "Olivier Besancenot": [1.34, 4.8, 9.95], "Ségolène Royal": [20.5, 29.67, 39.55]}}, {"date": "2006-10-21", "victoire": 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[9.48, 13.35, 17.72], "Nicolas Sarkozy": [26.17, 31.62, 37.43], "Ségolène Royal": [21.63, 26.85, 32.36]}}, {"date": "2007-03-10", "victoire": {"François Bayrou": 0.0117, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0007, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.7807, "Ségolène Royal": 0.2069}, "qualifie": {"François Bayrou": 0.0234, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0014, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.9985, "Ségolène Royal": 0.9767}, "premier_tour": {"François Bayrou": [13.03, 17.3, 21.91], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [9.82, 13.61, 17.88], "Nicolas Sarkozy": [26.11, 31.42, 36.96], "Ségolène Royal": [21.59, 26.62, 31.96]}}, {"date": "2007-03-17", "victoire": {"François Bayrou": 0.0873, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0004, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.7098, "Ségolène Royal": 0.2025}, "qualifie": {"François Bayrou": 0.1744, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0009, "Nicolas Sarkozy": 0.9804, "Ségolène Royal": 0.8443}, "premier_tour": {"François Bayrou": [16.38, 20.57, 25.01], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [10.0, 13.42, 17.22], "Nicolas Sarkozy": [24.24, 28.99, 33.9], "Ségolène Royal": [20.39, 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