{"annee": 2002, "passee": true, "date_premier_tour": "2002-04-21", "date_second_tour": "2002-05-05", "date_prevision": "2002-04-20", "jours_avant": 1, "candidats": {"Jacques Chirac": {"court": "Chirac", "parti": "RPR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Lionel Jospin": {"court": "Jospin", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": {"court": "J.-M. Le Pen", "parti": "FN", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 7}, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": {"court": "Chevènement", "parti": "MDC", "famille": "Divers gauche", "ordre": 4, "slot": 2}, "Arlette Laguiller": {"court": "Laguiller", "parti": "LO", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 8}, "Noël Mamère": {"court": "Mamère", "parti": "VEC", "famille": "Écologiste", "ordre": 5, "slot": 6}, "François Bayrou": {"court": "Bayrou", "parti": "MoDem", "famille": "Centre", "ordre": 6, "slot": 4}, "Robert Hue": {"court": "Hue", "parti": "PCF", "famille": "Communiste", "ordre": 1, "slot": 3}, "Alain Madelin": {"court": "Madelin", "parti": "DL", "famille": "Centre droit", "ordre": 7, "slot": 0}, "Olivier Besancenot": {"court": "Besancenot", "parti": "LCR", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "Jean Saint-Josse": {"court": "Saint-Josse", "parti": "CPNT", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 0}, "Bruno Mégret": {"court": "Mégret", "parti": "MNR", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 0}, "Christiane Taubira": {"court": "Taubira", "parti": "PRG", "famille": "Divers gauche", "ordre": 4, "slot": 0}, "Corinne Lepage": {"court": "Lepage", "parti": "CAP21", "famille": "Écologiste", "ordre": 5, "slot": 0}, "Christine Boutin": {"court": "Boutin", "parti": "FRS", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 0}, "Daniel Gluckstein": {"court": "Gluckstein", "parti": "PT", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["Jacques Chirac", "Lionel Jospin", "Jean-Marie Le Pen", "Arlette Laguiller", "François Bayrou", "Jean-Pierre Chevènement", "Noël Mamère", "Robert Hue"], "stats": {"Arlette Laguiller": {"moyenne": 7.27, "q05": 5.26, "q50": 7.2, "q95": 9.54, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "François Bayrou": {"moyenne": 6.28, "q05": 4.4, "q50": 6.21, "q95": 8.4, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Jacques Chirac": {"moyenne": 19.62, "q05": 16.43, "q50": 19.56, "q95": 23.0, "p_premier": 0.7296, "p_qualifie": 0.9921, "p_victoire": 0.4969}, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": {"moyenne": 13.0, "q05": 10.34, "q50": 12.95, "q95": 15.88, "p_premier": 0.0037, "p_qualifie": 0.0511, "p_victoire": 0.0255}, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": {"moyenne": 6.68, "q05": 4.76, "q50": 6.61, "q95": 8.87, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Lionel Jospin": {"moyenne": 17.72, "q05": 14.65, "q50": 17.66, "q95": 20.96, "p_premier": 0.2667, "p_qualifie": 0.9569, "p_victoire": 0.4776}, "Noël Mamère": {"moyenne": 6.03, "q05": 4.19, "q50": 5.95, "q95": 8.11, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Robert Hue": {"moyenne": 5.28, "q05": 3.57, "q50": 5.21, "q95": 7.25, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 18.12}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jacques Chirac", "b": "Lionel Jospin", "p_duel": 0.9489, "p_a_gagne": 0.5009, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 45.6113, "a_q95": 54.4099, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jacques Chirac", "b": "Jean-Marie Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0431, "p_a_gagne": 0.5, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 5.0352, "a_q95": 95.0196, "sonde": false}, {"a": "Jean-Marie Le Pen", "b": "Lionel Jospin", "p_duel": 0.0079, "p_a_gagne": 0.4962, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 4.9699, "a_q95": 94.917, "sonde": false}], "cle": ["Arlette Laguiller", "François Bayrou", "Jacques Chirac", "Jean-Marie Le Pen", "Jean-Pierre Chevènement", "Lionel Jospin", "Noël Mamère", "Robert Hue"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.0431, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.9489, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Chirac au-dessus de 20 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4144, "detail": "Score attendu : 19,6 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.4995, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.0822, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.1043, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Jospin devant J.-M. Le Pen au premier tour ?", "p": 0.9555, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 39, "instituts": ["BVA", "CSA", "Ifop", "Ipsos", "Louis Harris", "Sofres"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ipsos", "fin": "2002-04-18", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "Sofres", "fin": "2002-04-18", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "CSA", "fin": "2002-04-18", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "BVA", "fin": "2002-04-18", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "Louis Harris", "fin": "2002-04-17", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.983}, {"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "2002-04-13", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.954}], "concentration": 395.1}], "timeline": [{"date": "2001-10-06", "victoire": {"Alain Madelin": 0.0025, "Arlette Laguiller": 0.0059, "François Bayrou": 0.0031, "Jacques Chirac": 0.4386, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0076, "Jean-Pierre 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25.47, 34.59], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [3.96, 8.78, 15.11], "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": [4.56, 9.69, 16.28], "Lionel Jospin": [14.55, 22.35, 31.12], "Noël Mamère": [2.73, 6.98, 12.72], "Robert Hue": [2.01, 5.81, 11.12]}}, {"date": "2001-11-17", "victoire": {"Alain Madelin": 0.0002, "Arlette Laguiller": 0.0015, "François Bayrou": 0.0006, "Jacques Chirac": 0.6082, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0098, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": 0.0177, "Lionel Jospin": 0.3565, "Noël Mamère": 0.0042, "Robert Hue": 0.0012}, "qualifie": {"Alain Madelin": 0.0009, "Arlette Laguiller": 0.0029, "François Bayrou": 0.0014, "Jacques Chirac": 0.9812, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0197, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": 0.0326, "Lionel Jospin": 0.9499, "Noël Mamère": 0.0085, "Robert Hue": 0.0029}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Madelin": [1.35, 4.56, 9.17], "Arlette Laguiller": [2.13, 5.87, 11.11], "François Bayrou": [1.61, 4.99, 9.88], "Jacques Chirac": [17.15, 25.19, 33.89], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [4.09, 8.89, 14.99], "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": 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12.82], "Robert Hue": [2.26, 5.94, 11.0]}}, {"date": "2001-12-01", "victoire": {"Alain Madelin": 0.0003, "Arlette Laguiller": 0.0015, "François Bayrou": 0.0005, "Jacques Chirac": 0.5611, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0068, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": 0.0144, "Lionel Jospin": 0.411, "Noël Mamère": 0.0033, "Robert Hue": 0.0011}, "qualifie": {"Alain Madelin": 0.0005, "Arlette Laguiller": 0.0025, "François Bayrou": 0.0007, "Jacques Chirac": 0.9862, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0143, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": 0.0286, "Lionel Jospin": 0.9579, "Noël Mamère": 0.0067, "Robert Hue": 0.0024}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Madelin": [1.45, 4.59, 9.15], "Arlette Laguiller": [2.4, 6.15, 11.24], "François Bayrou": [1.59, 4.85, 9.5], "Jacques Chirac": [17.5, 25.3, 33.87], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [3.89, 8.48, 14.29], "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": [4.8, 9.69, 15.85], "Lionel Jospin": [14.77, 22.12, 30.4], "Noël Mamère": [3.12, 7.27, 12.82], "Robert Hue": [2.26, 5.94, 11.0]}}, {"date": "2001-12-08", "victoire": {"Alain Madelin": 0.0001, "Arlette Laguiller": 0.0013, "François Bayrou": 0.0005, "Jacques Chirac": 0.6289, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0058, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": 0.0133, "Lionel Jospin": 0.3471, "Noël Mamère": 0.002, "Robert Hue": 0.0011}, "qualifie": {"Alain Madelin": 0.0002, "Arlette Laguiller": 0.0026, "François Bayrou": 0.0006, "Jacques Chirac": 0.9878, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0117, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": 0.0284, "Lionel Jospin": 0.9632, "Noël Mamère": 0.0038, "Robert Hue": 0.0017}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Madelin": [1.32, 4.27, 8.55], "Arlette Laguiller": [2.61, 6.37, 11.35], "François Bayrou": [1.63, 4.8, 9.28], "Jacques Chirac": [17.79, 25.4, 33.69], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [4.01, 8.45, 14.07], "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": [5.14, 10.06, 16.13], "Lionel Jospin": [15.05, 22.12, 30.16], "Noël Mamère": [3.02, 6.97, 12.22], "Robert Hue": [2.34, 5.94, 10.84]}}, {"date": "2001-12-15", "victoire": {"Alain Madelin": 0.0001, "Arlette Laguiller": 0.0011, "François Bayrou": 0.0001, "Jacques Chirac": 0.6349, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0035, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": 0.0104, "Lionel Jospin": 0.3484, "Noël Mamère": 0.0011, "Robert Hue": 0.0004}, "qualifie": {"Alain Madelin": 0.0002, "Arlette Laguiller": 0.002, "François Bayrou": 0.0001, "Jacques Chirac": 0.9953, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0079, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": 0.0221, "Lionel Jospin": 0.9696, "Noël Mamère": 0.002, "Robert Hue": 0.0008}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Madelin": [1.68, 4.5, 8.43], "Arlette Laguiller": [3.19, 6.76, 11.34], "François Bayrou": [1.44, 4.14, 7.9], "Jacques Chirac": [18.95, 25.91, 33.44], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [4.43, 8.54, 13.72], "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": [5.76, 10.29, 15.75], "Lionel Jospin": [15.26, 21.69, 28.88], "Noël Mamère": [3.4, 7.09, 11.79], "Robert Hue": [2.74, 6.11, 10.58]}}, {"date": "2001-12-22", "victoire": {"Alain Madelin": 0.0001, "Arlette Laguiller": 0.0011, "François Bayrou": 0.0001, "Jacques Chirac": 0.6349, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0035, "Jean-Pierre Chevènement": 0.0104, "Lionel Jospin": 0.3484, 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