{"annee": 1995, "passee": true, "date_premier_tour": "1995-04-23", "date_second_tour": "1995-05-07", "date_prevision": "1995-04-22", "jours_avant": 1, "candidats": {"Édouard Balladur": {"court": "Balladur", "parti": "RPR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Jacques Chirac": {"court": "Chirac", "parti": "RPR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 6}, "Lionel Jospin": {"court": "Jospin", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": {"court": "J.-M. Le Pen", "parti": "FN", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 7}, "Robert Hue": {"court": "Hue", "parti": "PCF", "famille": "Communiste", "ordre": 1, "slot": 8}, "Philippe de Villiers": {"court": "de Villiers", "parti": "MPF", "famille": "Souverainiste", "ordre": 9, "slot": 2}, "Arlette Laguiller": {"court": "Laguiller", "parti": "LO", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 3}, "Jacques Delors": {"court": "Delors", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": {"court": "Giscard d'Estaing", "parti": "UDF", "famille": "Centre droit", "ordre": 7, "slot": 4}, "Dominique Voynet": {"court": "Voynet", "parti": "VEC", "famille": "Écologiste", "ordre": 5, "slot": 0}, "Jacques Cheminade": {"court": "Cheminade", "parti": "S&P", "famille": "Autre", "ordre": 11, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["Jacques Chirac", "Lionel Jospin", "Édouard Balladur", "Jean-Marie Le Pen", "Robert Hue", "Arlette Laguiller", "Philippe de Villiers"], "stats": {"Arlette Laguiller": {"moyenne": 5.04, "q05": 3.38, "q50": 4.96, "q95": 6.96, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Jacques Chirac": {"moyenne": 23.94, "q05": 20.51, "q50": 23.9, "q95": 27.52, "p_premier": 0.8493, "p_qualifie": 0.9941, "p_victoire": 0.9795}, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": {"moyenne": 13.99, "q05": 11.25, "q50": 13.93, "q95": 16.95, "p_premier": 0.0002, "p_qualifie": 0.0095, "p_victoire": 0.0048}, "Lionel Jospin": {"moyenne": 20.46, "q05": 17.24, "q50": 20.41, "q95": 23.85, "p_premier": 0.1456, "p_qualifie": 0.8995, "p_victoire": 0.0103}, "Philippe de Villiers": {"moyenne": 6.03, "q05": 4.21, "q50": 5.96, "q95": 8.1, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Robert Hue": {"moyenne": 9.52, "q05": 7.22, "q50": 9.45, "q95": 12.04, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Édouard Balladur": {"moyenne": 16.48, "q05": 13.53, "q50": 16.43, "q95": 19.64, "p_premier": 0.0049, "p_qualifie": 0.0969, "p_victoire": 0.0055}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 4.54}}, "duels": [{"a": "Jacques Chirac", "b": "Lionel Jospin", "p_duel": 0.8937, "p_a_gagne": 0.9887, "a_moyenne": 57.131, "a_q05": 52.0153, "a_q95": 62.1662, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jacques Chirac", "b": "Édouard Balladur", "p_duel": 0.0913, "p_a_gagne": 0.9994, "a_moyenne": 60.3476, "a_q05": 55.1019, "a_q95": 65.5432, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Jacques Chirac", "b": "Jean-Marie Le Pen", "p_duel": 0.0091, "p_a_gagne": 0.4983, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 4.5428, "a_q95": 94.9274, "sonde": false}, {"a": "Lionel Jospin", "b": "Édouard Balladur", "p_duel": 0.0055, "p_a_gagne": 0.0132, "a_moyenne": 39.0524, "a_q05": 31.5042, "a_q95": 47.0314, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Arlette Laguiller", "Jacques Chirac", "Jean-Marie Le Pen", "Lionel Jospin", "Philippe de Villiers", "Robert Hue", "Édouard Balladur"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.1005, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 0.9905, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Chirac au-dessus de 25 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.3043, "detail": "Score attendu : 23,9 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1607, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.1322, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.7762, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Jospin devant Balladur au premier tour ?", "p": 0.9053, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 9, "instituts": ["TNS Sofres"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "TNS Sofres", "fin": "1995-04-21", "source": "TNS Sofres", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.994}], "concentration": 399.6}], "timeline": [{"date": "1994-10-08", "victoire": {"Jacques Chirac": 0.0207, "Jacques Delors": 0.4727, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0038, "Robert Hue": 0.0004, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.0004, "Édouard Balladur": 0.502}, "qualifie": {"Jacques Chirac": 0.0999, "Jacques Delors": 0.9395, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0085, "Robert Hue": 0.0009, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.0006, "Édouard Balladur": 0.9506}, "premier_tour": {"Jacques Chirac": [8.19, 15.37, 23.98], "Jacques Delors": [19.37, 28.79, 39.15], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [3.78, 9.17, 16.25], "Robert Hue": [1.45, 5.29, 10.93], "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": [1.76, 5.81, 11.68], "Édouard Balladur": [19.95, 29.38, 39.85]}}, {"date": "1994-10-15", "victoire": {"Jacques Chirac": 0.0174, "Jacques Delors": 0.476, "Jean-Marie Le 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