{"annee": 1988, "passee": true, "date_premier_tour": "1988-04-24", "date_second_tour": "1988-05-08", "date_prevision": "1988-04-23", "jours_avant": 1, "candidats": {"François Mitterrand": {"court": "Mitterrand", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Raymond Barre": {"court": "Barre", "parti": "UDF", "famille": "Centre droit", "ordre": 7, "slot": 3}, "Jacques Chirac": {"court": "Chirac", "parti": "RPR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": {"court": "J.-M. Le Pen", "parti": "FN", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 7}, "André Lajoinie": {"court": "Lajoinie", "parti": "PCF", "famille": "Communiste", "ordre": 1, "slot": 8}, "Antoine Waechter": {"court": "Waechter", "parti": "VEC", "famille": "Écologiste", "ordre": 5, "slot": 0}, "Pierre Juquin": {"court": "Juquin", "parti": "DVG", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "Arlette Laguiller": {"court": "Laguiller", "parti": "LO", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "Pierre Boussel": {"court": "Boussel", "parti": "MPPT", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["François Mitterrand", "Jacques Chirac", "Raymond Barre", "Jean-Marie Le Pen", "André Lajoinie"], "stats": {"André Lajoinie": {"moyenne": 7.04, "q05": 5.06, "q50": 6.97, "q95": 9.26, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "François Mitterrand": {"moyenne": 34.93, "q05": 31.04, "q50": 34.9, "q95": 38.9, "p_premier": 0.9987, "p_qualifie": 1.0, "p_victoire": 0.8927}, "Jacques Chirac": {"moyenne": 23.47, "q05": 20.05, "q50": 23.43, "q95": 27.05, "p_premier": 0.0013, "p_qualifie": 0.9862, "p_victoire": 0.1052}, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": {"moyenne": 12.02, "q05": 9.46, "q50": 11.96, "q95": 14.82, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0001, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Raymond Barre": {"moyenne": 16.5, "q05": 13.54, "q50": 16.44, "q95": 19.66, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0138, "p_victoire": 0.0021}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 6.04}}, "duels": [{"a": "François Mitterrand", "b": "Jacques Chirac", "p_duel": 0.9862, "p_a_gagne": 0.8934, "a_moyenne": 53.4574, "a_q05": 48.8963, "a_q95": 57.9976, "sonde": true}, {"a": "François Mitterrand", "b": "Raymond Barre", "p_duel": 0.0138, "p_a_gagne": 0.8441, "a_moyenne": 53.571, "a_q05": 47.714, "a_q95": 59.676, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["André Lajoinie", "François Mitterrand", "Jacques Chirac", "Jean-Marie Le Pen", "Raymond Barre"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.0, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 1.0, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Mitterrand au-dessus de 35 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.4839, "detail": "Score attendu : 34,9 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.1084, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.0238, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.2906, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Chirac devant Barre au premier tour ?", "p": 0.9862, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 4, "instituts": ["Sofres"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Sofres", "fin": "1988-04-21", "source": "Sofres", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}], "concentration": 397.1}], "timeline": [{"date": "1987-10-31", "victoire": {"François Mitterrand": 0.5361, "Jacques Chirac": 0.2417, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0119, "Raymond Barre": 0.2102}, "qualifie": {"François Mitterrand": 0.9971, "Jacques Chirac": 0.5397, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.024, "Raymond Barre": 0.4393}, "premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": [32.53, 42.42, 52.66], "Jacques Chirac": [15.04, 23.02, 31.91], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [6.3, 12.24, 19.52], "Raymond Barre": [14.06, 21.94, 30.74]}}, {"date": "1987-11-07", "victoire": {"François Mitterrand": 0.6226, "Jacques Chirac": 0.2418, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0119, "Raymond Barre": 0.1237}, "qualifie": {"François Mitterrand": 0.9971, "Jacques Chirac": 0.5397, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.024, "Raymond Barre": 0.4393}, "premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": [32.53, 42.42, 52.66], "Jacques Chirac": [15.04, 23.02, 31.91], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [6.3, 12.24, 19.52], "Raymond Barre": [14.06, 21.94, 30.74]}}, {"date": "1987-11-14", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.6921, "Jacques Chirac": 0.034, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0038, "Raymond Barre": 0.2701}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0001, "François Mitterrand": 0.9955, "Jacques Chirac": 0.1942, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.008, "Raymond Barre": 0.8022}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [1.23, 4.26, 8.7], "François Mitterrand": [28.48, 37.57, 46.95], "Jacques Chirac": [11.23, 17.97, 25.73], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.11, 10.14, 16.39], "Raymond Barre": [16.62, 24.34, 32.74]}}, {"date": "1987-11-21", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.6199, "Jacques Chirac": 0.034, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0038, "Raymond Barre": 0.3422}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0001, "François Mitterrand": 0.9955, "Jacques Chirac": 0.1942, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.008, "Raymond Barre": 0.8022}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [1.23, 4.26, 8.7], "François Mitterrand": [28.48, 37.57, 46.95], "Jacques Chirac": [11.23, 17.97, 25.73], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.11, 10.14, 16.39], "Raymond Barre": [16.62, 24.34, 32.74]}}, {"date": "1987-11-28", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.6199, "Jacques Chirac": 0.034, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0038, "Raymond Barre": 0.3422}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0001, "François Mitterrand": 0.9955, "Jacques Chirac": 0.1942, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.008, "Raymond Barre": 0.8022}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [1.23, 4.26, 8.7], "François Mitterrand": [28.48, 37.57, 46.95], "Jacques Chirac": [11.23, 17.97, 25.73], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.11, 10.14, 16.39], "Raymond Barre": [16.62, 24.34, 32.74]}}, {"date": "1987-12-05", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.6199, "Jacques Chirac": 0.034, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0038, "Raymond Barre": 0.3422}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0001, "François Mitterrand": 0.9955, "Jacques Chirac": 0.1942, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.008, "Raymond Barre": 0.8022}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [1.23, 4.26, 8.7], "François Mitterrand": [28.48, 37.57, 46.95], "Jacques Chirac": [11.23, 17.97, 25.73], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.11, 10.14, 16.39], "Raymond Barre": [16.62, 24.34, 32.74]}}, {"date": "1987-12-12", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.6336, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0434, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.002, "Raymond Barre": 0.3209}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9973, "Jacques Chirac": 0.2347, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0043, "Raymond Barre": 0.7637}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [1.73, 4.7, 8.84], "François Mitterrand": [29.47, 37.65, 46.14], "Jacques Chirac": [12.61, 18.96, 26.05], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.5, 10.11, 15.73], "Raymond Barre": [16.99, 23.88, 31.49]}}, {"date": "1987-12-19", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.6336, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0434, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.002, "Raymond Barre": 0.3209}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9973, "Jacques Chirac": 0.2347, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0043, "Raymond Barre": 0.7637}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [1.73, 4.7, 8.84], "François Mitterrand": [29.47, 37.65, 46.14], "Jacques Chirac": [12.61, 18.96, 26.05], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.5, 10.11, 15.73], "Raymond Barre": [16.99, 23.88, 31.49]}}, {"date": "1987-12-26", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.6336, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0434, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.002, "Raymond Barre": 0.3209}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9973, "Jacques Chirac": 0.2347, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0043, "Raymond Barre": 0.7637}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [1.73, 4.7, 8.84], "François Mitterrand": [29.47, 37.65, 46.14], "Jacques Chirac": [12.61, 18.96, 26.05], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.5, 10.11, 15.73], "Raymond Barre": [16.99, 23.88, 31.49]}}, {"date": "1988-01-02", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.6336, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0434, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.002, "Raymond Barre": 0.3209}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9973, "Jacques Chirac": 0.2347, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0043, "Raymond Barre": 0.7637}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [1.73, 4.7, 8.84], "François Mitterrand": [29.47, 37.65, 46.14], "Jacques Chirac": [12.61, 18.96, 26.05], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.5, 10.11, 15.73], "Raymond Barre": [16.99, 23.88, 31.49]}}, {"date": "1988-01-09", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.6336, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0434, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.002, "Raymond Barre": 0.3209}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9973, "Jacques Chirac": 0.2347, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0043, "Raymond Barre": 0.7637}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [1.73, 4.7, 8.84], "François Mitterrand": [29.47, 37.65, 46.14], "Jacques Chirac": [12.61, 18.96, 26.05], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.5, 10.11, 15.73], "Raymond Barre": [16.99, 23.88, 31.49]}}, {"date": "1988-01-16", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.6748, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0192, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0001, "Raymond Barre": 0.3059}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9997, "Jacques Chirac": 0.2714, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0006, "Raymond Barre": 0.7283}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [2.37, 5.14, 8.74], "François Mitterrand": [32.58, 39.72, 47.05], "Jacques Chirac": [13.89, 19.47, 25.56], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.3, 9.09, 13.64], "Raymond Barre": [16.97, 22.92, 29.24]}}, {"date": "1988-01-23", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.8101, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0259, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.001, "Raymond Barre": 0.1631}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9995, "Jacques Chirac": 0.3843, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.002, "Raymond Barre": 0.6142}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [2.06, 4.62, 7.97], "François Mitterrand": [31.34, 38.19, 45.36], "Jacques Chirac": [14.72, 20.24, 26.26], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [6.18, 10.12, 14.84], "Raymond Barre": [16.22, 21.9, 28.0]}}, {"date": "1988-01-30", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.8309, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0325, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0007, "Raymond Barre": 0.1359}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9999, "Jacques Chirac": 0.48, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0015, "Raymond Barre": 0.5186}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [2.03, 4.56, 7.84], "François Mitterrand": [33.26, 40.1, 47.18], "Jacques Chirac": [14.9, 20.31, 26.24], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [5.77, 9.51, 14.0], "Raymond Barre": [15.14, 20.61, 26.52]}}, {"date": "1988-02-06", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.8532, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0634, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0005, "Raymond Barre": 0.0828}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9997, "Jacques Chirac": 0.687, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.001, "Raymond Barre": 0.3123}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [2.6, 5.11, 8.25], "François Mitterrand": [31.07, 37.29, 43.69], "Jacques Chirac": [17.22, 22.45, 28.07], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [6.91, 10.56, 14.93], "Raymond Barre": [14.96, 19.96, 25.33]}}, {"date": "1988-02-13", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.8532, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0634, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0005, "Raymond Barre": 0.0828}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9997, "Jacques Chirac": 0.687, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.001, "Raymond Barre": 0.3123}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [2.6, 5.11, 8.25], "François Mitterrand": [31.07, 37.29, 43.69], "Jacques Chirac": [17.22, 22.45, 28.07], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [6.91, 10.56, 14.93], "Raymond Barre": [14.96, 19.96, 25.33]}}, {"date": "1988-02-20", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.8201, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0979, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0003, "Raymond Barre": 0.0816}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9998, "Jacques Chirac": 0.7021, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0007, "Raymond Barre": 0.2973}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [3.13, 5.69, 8.84], "François Mitterrand": [30.95, 36.91, 42.99], "Jacques Chirac": [17.47, 22.5, 27.79], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [7.1, 10.6, 14.76], "Raymond Barre": [15.12, 19.88, 25.04]}}, {"date": "1988-02-27", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.8201, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0979, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0003, "Raymond Barre": 0.0816}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9998, "Jacques Chirac": 0.7021, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0007, "Raymond Barre": 0.2973}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [3.13, 5.69, 8.84], "François Mitterrand": [30.95, 36.91, 42.99], "Jacques Chirac": [17.47, 22.5, 27.79], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [7.1, 10.6, 14.76], "Raymond Barre": [15.12, 19.88, 25.04]}}, {"date": "1988-03-05", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.8406, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0828, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0002, "Raymond Barre": 0.0764}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9999, "Jacques Chirac": 0.7206, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0004, "Raymond Barre": 0.2791}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [3.58, 6.04, 8.99], "François Mitterrand": [31.26, 36.71, 42.27], "Jacques Chirac": [17.55, 22.15, 26.95], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [7.25, 10.5, 14.23], "Raymond Barre": [15.15, 19.52, 24.23]}}, {"date": "1988-03-12", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.8406, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0828, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0002, "Raymond Barre": 0.0764}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9999, "Jacques Chirac": 0.7206, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0004, "Raymond Barre": 0.2791}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [3.58, 6.04, 8.99], "François Mitterrand": [31.26, 36.71, 42.27], "Jacques Chirac": [17.55, 22.15, 26.95], "Jean-Marie Le 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Mitterrand": [31.26, 36.71, 42.27], "Jacques Chirac": [17.55, 22.15, 26.95], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [7.25, 10.5, 14.23], "Raymond Barre": [15.15, 19.52, 24.23]}}, {"date": "1988-04-02", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.944, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0516, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0001, "Raymond Barre": 0.0043}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 1.0, "Jacques Chirac": 0.9664, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0003, "Raymond Barre": 0.0333}, "premier_tour": {"André Lajoinie": [3.98, 6.24, 8.87], "François Mitterrand": [31.49, 36.34, 41.29], "Jacques Chirac": [19.36, 23.59, 28.0], "Jean-Marie Le Pen": [8.34, 11.35, 14.78], "Raymond Barre": [12.81, 16.46, 20.34]}}, {"date": "1988-04-09", "victoire": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9125, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0767, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0, "Raymond Barre": 0.0108}, "qualifie": {"André Lajoinie": 0.0, "François Mitterrand": 1.0, "Jacques Chirac": 0.9276, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.0, "Raymond 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