{"annee": 1981, "passee": true, "date_premier_tour": "1981-04-26", "date_second_tour": "1981-05-10", "date_prevision": "1981-04-25", "jours_avant": 1, "candidats": {"Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": {"court": "Giscard d'Estaing", "parti": "UDF", "famille": "Centre droit", "ordre": 7, "slot": 3}, "François Mitterrand": {"court": "Mitterrand", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Georges Marchais": {"court": "Marchais", "parti": "PCF", "famille": "Communiste", "ordre": 1, "slot": 8}, "Jacques Chirac": {"court": "Chirac", "parti": "RPR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Michel Debré": {"court": "Debré", "parti": "DVD", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 2}, "Brice Lalonde": {"court": "Lalonde", "parti": "ECO", "famille": "Écologiste", "ordre": 5, "slot": 6}, "Arlette Laguiller": {"court": "Laguiller", "parti": "LO", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "Michel Crépeau": {"court": "Crépeau", "parti": "MRG", "famille": "Divers gauche", "ordre": 4, "slot": 0}, "Marie-France Garaud": {"court": "Garaud", "parti": "DVD", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 0}, "Huguette Bouchardeau": {"court": "Bouchardeau", "parti": "PSU", "famille": "Divers gauche", "ordre": 4, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["Valéry Giscard d'Estaing", "François Mitterrand", "Georges Marchais", "Jacques Chirac"], "stats": {"François Mitterrand": {"moyenne": 21.5, "q05": 18.21, "q50": 21.45, "q95": 24.94, "p_premier": 0.0416, "p_qualifie": 0.6945, "p_victoire": 0.3472}, "Georges Marchais": {"moyenne": 19.0, "q05": 15.87, "q50": 18.95, "q95": 22.31, "p_premier": 0.0049, "p_qualifie": 0.1801, "p_victoire": 0.0901}, "Jacques Chirac": {"moyenne": 18.5, "q05": 15.41, "q50": 18.45, "q95": 21.79, "p_premier": 0.003, "p_qualifie": 0.1288, "p_victoire": 0.0641}, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": {"moyenne": 27.48, "q05": 23.87, "q50": 27.44, "q95": 31.21, "p_premier": 0.9505, "p_qualifie": 0.9966, "p_victoire": 0.4986}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 13.52}}, "duels": [{"a": "François Mitterrand", "b": "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing", "p_duel": 0.6913, "p_a_gagne": 0.5, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 45.3743, "a_q95": 54.6185, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Georges Marchais", "b": "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing", "p_duel": 0.1779, "p_a_gagne": 0.5005, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 5.0217, "a_q95": 95.0045, "sonde": false}, {"a": "Jacques Chirac", "b": "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing", "p_duel": 0.1274, "p_a_gagne": 0.4973, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 4.902, "a_q95": 95.0457, "sonde": false}], "cle": ["François Mitterrand", "Georges Marchais", "Jacques Chirac", "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.1274, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Giscard d'Estaing au-dessus de 25 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.8673, "detail": "Score attendu : 27,5 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.4993, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.2621, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.3297, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mitterrand devant Marchais au premier tour ?", "p": 0.7837, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 5, "instituts": ["TNS Sofres"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "TNS Sofres", "fin": "1981-04-25", "source": "TNS Sofres", "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.998}], "concentration": 400.4}], "timeline": [{"date": "1980-10-18", "victoire": {"Brice Lalonde": 0.0015, "François Mitterrand": 0.0884, "Georges Marchais": 0.1793, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0426, "Michel Debré": 0.0015, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.6868}, "qualifie": {"Brice Lalonde": 0.0025, "François Mitterrand": 0.5562, "Georges Marchais": 0.3652, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0834, "Michel Debré": 0.0024, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.9902}, "premier_tour": {"Brice Lalonde": [1.62, 5.34, 10.79], "François Mitterrand": [11.51, 19.15, 27.93], "Georges Marchais": [10.0, 17.17, 25.62], "Jacques Chirac": [6.16, 12.24, 19.74], "Michel Debré": [1.6, 5.34, 10.65], "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": [24.29, 33.94, 44.03]}}, {"date": "1980-10-25", "victoire": {"Brice Lalonde": 0.0015, "François Mitterrand": 0.0884, "Georges Marchais": 0.1793, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0426, "Michel Debré": 0.0015, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.6868}, "qualifie": {"Brice Lalonde": 0.0025, "François Mitterrand": 0.5562, "Georges Marchais": 0.3652, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0834, "Michel Debré": 0.0024, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.9902}, "premier_tour": {"Brice Lalonde": [1.62, 5.34, 10.79], 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"Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.4627}, "qualifie": {"François Mitterrand": 0.8905, "Georges Marchais": 0.1067, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0076, "Michel Debré": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.9953}, "premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": [17.44, 23.5, 30.05], "Georges Marchais": [11.31, 16.41, 22.29], "Jacques Chirac": [7.04, 11.35, 16.41], "Michel Debré": [2.76, 5.78, 9.62], "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": [24.76, 31.61, 38.72]}}, {"date": "1981-02-14", "victoire": {"François Mitterrand": 0.51, "Georges Marchais": 0.0305, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0024, "Michel Debré": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.4572}, "qualifie": {"François Mitterrand": 0.9476, "Georges Marchais": 0.0598, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0046, "Michel Debré": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.988}, "premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": [20.46, 25.82, 31.53], "Georges Marchais": [13.04, 17.61, 22.68], "Jacques Chirac": [9.47, 13.5, 18.03], "Michel Debré": [2.04, 4.26, 7.04], "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": [23.35, 28.91, 34.82]}}, {"date": "1981-02-21", "victoire": {"François Mitterrand": 0.51, "Georges Marchais": 0.0305, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0024, "Michel Debré": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.4572}, "qualifie": {"François Mitterrand": 0.9476, "Georges Marchais": 0.0598, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0046, "Michel Debré": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.988}, "premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": [20.46, 25.82, 31.53], "Georges Marchais": [13.04, 17.61, 22.68], "Jacques Chirac": [9.47, 13.5, 18.03], "Michel Debré": [2.04, 4.26, 7.04], "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": [23.35, 28.91, 34.82]}}, {"date": "1981-02-28", "victoire": {"François Mitterrand": 0.51, "Georges Marchais": 0.0305, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0024, "Michel Debré": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.4572}, "qualifie": {"François Mitterrand": 0.9476, "Georges Marchais": 0.0598, "Jacques Chirac": 0.0046, "Michel Debré": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.988}, "premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": [20.46, 25.82, 31.53], "Georges Marchais": [13.04, 17.61, 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