{"annee": 1974, "passee": true, "date_premier_tour": "1974-05-05", "date_second_tour": "1974-05-19", "date_prevision": "1974-05-04", "jours_avant": 1, "candidats": {"Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": {"court": "Giscard d'Estaing", "parti": "RI", "famille": "Centre droit", "ordre": 7, "slot": 3}, "François Mitterrand": {"court": "Mitterrand", "parti": "PS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": {"court": "Chaban-Delmas", "parti": "UDR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Jean Royer": {"court": "Royer", "parti": "DVD", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 6}, "Arlette Laguiller": {"court": "Laguiller", "parti": "LO", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "René Dumont": {"court": "Dumont", "parti": "ECO", "famille": "Écologiste", "ordre": 5, "slot": 0}, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": {"court": "J.-M. Le Pen", "parti": "FN", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 0}, "Émile Muller": {"court": "Muller", "parti": "MDSF", "famille": "Divers gauche", "ordre": 4, "slot": 0}, "Alain Krivine": {"court": "Krivine", "parti": "FCR", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}, "Bertrand Renouvin": {"court": "Renouvin", "parti": "NAR", "famille": "Autre", "ordre": 11, "slot": 0}, "Jean-Claude Sebag": {"court": "Sebag", "parti": "MFE", "famille": "Autre", "ordre": 11, "slot": 0}, "Guy Héraud": {"court": "Héraud", "parti": "PFE", "famille": "Autre", "ordre": 11, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["Valéry Giscard d'Estaing", "François Mitterrand", "Jacques Chaban-Delmas", "Jean Royer"], "stats": {"François Mitterrand": {"moyenne": 47.02, "q05": 42.91, "q50": 47.01, "q95": 51.13, "p_premier": 0.9996, "p_qualifie": 1.0, "p_victoire": 0.4318}, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": {"moyenne": 16.93, "q05": 13.93, "q50": 16.88, "q95": 20.13, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Jean Royer": {"moyenne": 3.76, "q05": 2.33, "q50": 3.69, "q95": 5.46, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": {"moyenne": 32.23, "q05": 28.42, "q50": 32.21, "q95": 36.14, "p_premier": 0.0004, "p_qualifie": 1.0, "p_victoire": 0.5682}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 0.06}}, "duels": [{"a": "François Mitterrand", "b": "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing", "p_duel": 0.8834, "p_a_gagne": 0.3568, "a_moyenne": 49.0015, "a_q05": 44.5174, "a_q95": 53.5002, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["François Mitterrand", "Jacques Chaban-Delmas", "Jean Royer", "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.0, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Mitterrand au-dessus de 45 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.788, "detail": "Score attendu : 47,0 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.5681, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.0, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.076, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Giscard d'Estaing devant Chaban-Delmas au premier tour ?", "p": 1.0, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 9, "instituts": ["Ifop", "TNS Sofres"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "1974-05-03", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.994}, {"sondeur": "TNS Sofres", "fin": "1974-04-30", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.977}], "concentration": 395.3}], "timeline": [{"date": "1974-04-13", "victoire": {"François Mitterrand": 0.4999, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 0.3433, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.1567}, "qualifie": {"François Mitterrand": 0.9998, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 0.6855, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.3148}, "premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": [37.04, 41.61, 46.2], "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": [25.99, 30.19, 34.49], "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": [24.02, 28.11, 32.34]}}, {"date": "1974-04-20", "victoire": {"François Mitterrand": 0.5036, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 0.1498, "Jean Royer": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.3466}, "qualifie": {"François Mitterrand": 1.0, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 0.299, "Jean Royer": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.701}, "premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": [37.94, 42.25, 46.63], "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": [21.48, 25.21, 29.08], "Jean Royer": [3.4, 5.21, 7.32], "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": [23.38, 27.26, 31.24]}}, {"date": "1974-04-27", "victoire": {"François Mitterrand": 0.242, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 0.0038, "Jean Royer": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.7542}, "qualifie": {"François Mitterrand": 1.0, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 0.0076, "Jean Royer": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.9924}, "premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": [39.52, 43.7, 47.96], "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": [18.38, 21.77, 25.35], "Jean Royer": [2.22, 3.69, 5.42], "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": [26.88, 30.77, 34.74]}}, {"date": "1974-05-04", "victoire": {"François Mitterrand": 0.4382, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 0.0, "Jean Royer": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 0.5618}, "qualifie": {"François Mitterrand": 1.0, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 0.0, "Jean Royer": 0.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 1.0}, "premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": [42.92, 47.02, 51.14], "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": [13.95, 16.93, 20.08], "Jean Royer": [2.33, 3.76, 5.46], "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": [28.42, 32.23, 36.11]}}], "sondages": [{"d": "1974-04-09", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 41.7, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 28.1, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 30.2}}, {"d": "1974-04-09", "i": "TNS Sofres", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 37.1, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 27.8, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 26.8}}, {"d": "1974-04-16", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 43.0, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 27.0, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 25.0, "Jean Royer": 5.0}}, {"d": "1974-04-16", "i": "TNS Sofres", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 40.4, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 28.3, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 26.3, "Jean Royer": 5.1}}, {"d": "1974-04-18", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 44.2, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 26.3, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 24.2, "Jean Royer": 5.3}}, {"d": "1974-04-22", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 42.7, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 27.1, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 24.0, "Jean Royer": 6.2}}, {"d": "1974-04-22", "i": "TNS Sofres", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 42.9, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 28.6, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 24.5, "Jean Royer": 4.1}}, {"d": "1974-04-25", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 44.7, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 33.0, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 19.1, "Jean Royer": 3.2}}, {"d": "1974-04-29", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 44.7, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 33.0, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 19.1, "Jean Royer": 3.2}}, {"d": "1974-04-30", "i": "TNS Sofres", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 46.3, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 32.6, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 17.9, "Jean Royer": 3.2}}, {"d": "1974-05-03", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 47.9, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 31.9, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 16.0, "Jean Royer": 4.3}}], "evenements": [], "resultats": {"premier_tour": {"François Mitterrand": 43.25, "Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 32.6, "Jacques Chaban-Delmas": 15.11, "Jean Royer": 3.17, "Arlette Laguiller": 2.33, "René Dumont": 1.32, "Jean-Marie Le Pen": 0.75, "Émile Muller": 0.69, "Alain Krivine": 0.37, "Bertrand Renouvin": 0.17, "Jean-Claude Sebag": 0.16, "Guy Héraud": 0.08}, "second_tour": {"Valéry Giscard d'Estaing": 50.81, "François Mitterrand": 49.19}, "date_premier_tour": "1974-05-05", "date_second_tour": "1974-05-19"}, "n_simulations": 500000, "n_sondages": 11, "n_hypotheses": 11, "n_duels": 6, "source": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1974", "licence": "CC BY-SA 4.0 — contributeurs de Wikipédia", "sources": [{"url": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1974", "licence": "CC BY-SA 4.0 — contributeurs de Wikipédia", "periode": null, "revision": 240378275}], "wiki": {"url": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1974", "historique": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%C3%89lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_1974&action=history"}}