{"annee": 1969, "passee": true, "date_premier_tour": "1969-06-01", "date_second_tour": "1969-06-15", "date_prevision": "1969-05-31", "jours_avant": 1, "candidats": {"Alain Poher": {"court": "Poher", "parti": "CD", "famille": "Centre", "ordre": 6, "slot": 4}, "Georges Pompidou": {"court": "Pompidou", "parti": "UDR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "Jacques Duclos": {"court": "Duclos", "parti": "PCF", "famille": "Communiste", "ordre": 1, "slot": 8}, "Gaston Defferre": {"court": "Defferre", "parti": "SFIO", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Michel Rocard": {"court": "Rocard", "parti": "PSU", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 0}, "Louis Ducatel": {"court": "Ducatel", "parti": "DIV", "famille": "Autre", "ordre": 11, "slot": 0}, "Alain Krivine": {"court": "Krivine", "parti": "LC", "famille": "Extrême gauche", "ordre": 0, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["Alain Poher", "Georges Pompidou", "Jacques Duclos", "Gaston Defferre"], "stats": {"Alain Poher": {"moyenne": 27.96, "q05": 24.3, "q50": 27.92, "q95": 31.72, "p_premier": 0.0012, "p_qualifie": 0.999, "p_victoire": 0.9619}, "Gaston Defferre": {"moyenne": 8.04, "q05": 5.92, "q50": 7.97, "q95": 10.42, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Georges Pompidou": {"moyenne": 40.44, "q05": 36.41, "q50": 40.42, "q95": 44.51, "p_premier": 0.9988, "p_qualifie": 1.0, "p_victoire": 0.0376}, "Jacques Duclos": {"moyenne": 17.51, "q05": 14.46, "q50": 17.46, "q95": 20.75, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.001, "p_victoire": 0.0005}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 6.05}}, "duels": [{"a": "Alain Poher", "b": "Georges Pompidou", "p_duel": 0.9989, "p_a_gagne": 0.9629, "a_moyenne": 54.9922, "a_q05": 50.3973, "a_q95": 59.5346, "sonde": true}], "cle": ["Alain Poher", "Gaston Defferre", "Georges Pompidou", "Jacques Duclos"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.999, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "Pompidou au-dessus de 40 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.5682, "detail": "Score attendu : 40,4 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.9612, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.0022, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.5004, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Poher devant Duclos au premier tour ?", "p": 0.999, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 10, "instituts": ["Ifop", "Sofres"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "1969-05-29", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}, {"sondeur": "Sofres", "fin": "1969-05-27", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.977}], "concentration": 394.3}], "timeline": [{"date": "1969-05-10", "victoire": {"Alain Poher": 0.496, "Gaston Defferre": 0.0, "Georges Pompidou": 0.504, "Jacques Duclos": 0.0}, "qualifie": {"Alain Poher": 1.0, "Gaston Defferre": 0.0, "Georges Pompidou": 1.0, "Jacques Duclos": 0.0}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Poher": [30.55, 34.94, 39.46], "Gaston Defferre": [8.27, 11.04, 14.06], "Georges Pompidou": [37.33, 41.91, 46.49], "Jacques Duclos": [7.41, 10.04, 12.97]}}, {"date": "1969-05-17", "victoire": {"Alain Poher": 0.4969, "Gaston Defferre": 0.0, "Georges Pompidou": 0.5031, "Jacques Duclos": 0.0}, "qualifie": {"Alain Poher": 1.0, "Gaston Defferre": 0.0, "Georges Pompidou": 1.0, "Jacques Duclos": 0.0}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Poher": [33.71, 37.95, 42.2], "Gaston Defferre": [4.53, 6.54, 8.8], "Georges Pompidou": [37.15, 41.43, 45.77], "Jacques Duclos": [9.32, 12.03, 14.97]}}, {"date": "1969-05-24", "victoire": {"Alain Poher": 0.9626, "Gaston Defferre": 0.0, "Georges Pompidou": 0.0374, "Jacques Duclos": 0.0}, "qualifie": {"Alain Poher": 1.0, "Gaston Defferre": 0.0, "Georges Pompidou": 1.0, "Jacques Duclos": 0.0}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Poher": [27.13, 30.96, 34.94], "Gaston Defferre": [6.31, 8.54, 11.03], "Georges Pompidou": [35.79, 39.93, 44.13], "Jacques Duclos": [11.62, 14.52, 17.57]}}, {"date": "1969-05-31", "victoire": {"Alain Poher": 0.9613, "Gaston Defferre": 0.0, "Georges Pompidou": 0.0383, "Jacques Duclos": 0.0004}, "qualifie": {"Alain Poher": 0.9987, "Gaston Defferre": 0.0, "Georges Pompidou": 1.0, "Jacques Duclos": 0.0013}, "premier_tour": {"Alain Poher": [24.34, 27.96, 31.76], "Gaston Defferre": [5.93, 8.04, 10.42], "Georges Pompidou": [36.39, 40.44, 44.54], "Jacques Duclos": [14.44, 17.51, 20.69]}}], "sondages": [{"d": "1969-05-06", "i": "Sofres", "s": {"Jacques Duclos": 10.0, "Michel Rocard": 2.0, "Gaston Defferre": 11.0, "Alain Poher": 35.0, "Georges Pompidou": 42.0}}, {"d": "1969-05-12", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"Jacques Duclos": 10.0, "Michel Rocard": 3.0, "Gaston Defferre": 10.0, "Alain Poher": 34.0, "Georges Pompidou": 43.0}}, {"d": "1969-05-14", "i": "Sofres", "s": {"Jacques Duclos": 12.1, "Michel Rocard": 1.0, "Gaston Defferre": 8.1, "Alain Poher": 37.4, "Georges Pompidou": 41.4}}, {"d": "1969-05-15", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"Alain Krivine": 1.0, "Jacques Duclos": 12.0, "Michel Rocard": 2.0, "Gaston Defferre": 7.0, "Alain Poher": 37.0, "Georges Pompidou": 41.0}}, {"d": "1969-05-17", "i": "Sofres", "s": {"Jacques Duclos": 12.0, "Michel Rocard": 1.0, "Gaston Defferre": 6.0, "Alain Poher": 39.0, "Georges Pompidou": 42.0}}, {"d": "1969-05-22", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"Alain Krivine": 2.0, "Jacques Duclos": 14.0, "Michel Rocard": 4.0, "Gaston Defferre": 8.0, "Louis Ducatel": 1.0, "Alain Poher": 30.0, "Georges Pompidou": 41.0}}, {"d": "1969-05-22", "i": "Sofres", "s": {"Alain Krivine": 1.0, "Jacques Duclos": 15.0, "Michel Rocard": 3.0, "Gaston Defferre": 9.0, "Louis Ducatel": 1.0, "Alain Poher": 32.0, "Georges Pompidou": 39.0}}, {"d": "1969-05-27", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"Alain Krivine": 1.0, "Jacques Duclos": 17.0, "Michel Rocard": 3.0, "Gaston Defferre": 7.0, "Louis Ducatel": 1.0, "Alain Poher": 31.0, "Georges Pompidou": 40.0}}, {"d": "1969-05-27", "i": "Sofres", "s": {"Alain Krivine": 1.0, "Jacques Duclos": 17.0, "Michel Rocard": 3.0, "Gaston Defferre": 7.0, "Louis Ducatel": 1.0, "Alain Poher": 31.0, "Georges Pompidou": 40.0}}, {"d": "1969-05-29", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"Alain Krivine": 1.0, "Jacques Duclos": 18.0, "Michel Rocard": 5.0, "Gaston Defferre": 9.0, "Louis Ducatel": 1.0, "Alain Poher": 25.0, "Georges Pompidou": 41.0}}], "evenements": [], "resultats": {"premier_tour": {"Georges Pompidou": 44.47, "Alain Poher": 23.31, "Jacques Duclos": 21.27, "Gaston Defferre": 5.01, "Michel Rocard": 3.61, "Louis Ducatel": 1.27, "Alain Krivine": 1.06}, "second_tour": {"Georges Pompidou": 58.21, "Alain Poher": 41.79}, "date_premier_tour": "1969-06-01", "date_second_tour": "1969-06-15"}, "n_simulations": 500000, "n_sondages": 10, "n_hypotheses": 10, "n_duels": 6, "source": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1969", "licence": "CC BY-SA 4.0 — contributeurs de Wikipédia", "sources": [{"url": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1969", "licence": "CC BY-SA 4.0 — contributeurs de Wikipédia", "periode": null, "revision": 240298025}], "wiki": {"url": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1969", "historique": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%C3%89lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_1969&action=history"}}