{"annee": 1965, "passee": true, "date_premier_tour": "1965-12-05", "date_second_tour": "1965-12-19", "date_prevision": "1965-12-04", "jours_avant": 1, "candidats": {"Charles de Gaulle": {"court": "de Gaulle", "parti": "UNR", "famille": "Droite", "ordre": 8, "slot": 1}, "François Mitterrand": {"court": "Mitterrand", "parti": "FGDS", "famille": "Socialiste", "ordre": 3, "slot": 5}, "Jean Lecanuet": {"court": "Lecanuet", "parti": "CD", "famille": "Centre", "ordre": 6, "slot": 4}, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": {"court": "Tixier-Vignancour", "parti": "CT", "famille": "Extrême droite", "ordre": 10, "slot": 7}, "Pierre Marcilhacy": {"court": "Marcilhacy", "parti": "CL", "famille": "Centre droit", "ordre": 7, "slot": 0}, "Marcel Barbu": {"court": "Barbu", "parti": "DIV", "famille": "Autre", "ordre": 11, "slot": 0}}, "scenarios": [{"libelle": "Scénario le plus sondé", "candidats": ["Charles de Gaulle", "Jean Lecanuet", "François Mitterrand", "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour"], "stats": {"Charles de Gaulle": {"moyenne": 42.93, "q05": 38.86, "q50": 42.92, "q95": 47.04, "p_premier": 0.9999, "p_qualifie": 1.0, "p_victoire": 0.9893}, "François Mitterrand": {"moyenne": 26.98, "q05": 23.37, "q50": 26.94, "q95": 30.71, "p_premier": 0.0001, "p_qualifie": 0.9788, "p_victoire": 0.0001}, "Jean Lecanuet": {"moyenne": 20.0, "q05": 16.79, "q50": 19.95, "q95": 23.38, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0212, "p_victoire": 0.0105}, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": {"moyenne": 7.04, "q05": 5.06, "q50": 6.97, "q95": 9.27, "p_premier": 0.0, "p_qualifie": 0.0, "p_victoire": 0.0}, "Autres": {"moyenne": 3.05}}, "duels": [{"a": "Charles de Gaulle", "b": "François Mitterrand", "p_duel": 0.9765, "p_a_gagne": 0.9999, "a_moyenne": 59.9856, "a_q05": 55.6367, "a_q95": 64.2674, "sonde": true}, {"a": "Charles de Gaulle", "b": "Jean Lecanuet", "p_duel": 0.0211, "p_a_gagne": 0.5015, "a_moyenne": 50.0, "a_q05": 4.7509, "a_q95": 94.8603, "sonde": false}], "cle": ["Charles de Gaulle", "François Mitterrand", "Jean Lecanuet", "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour"], "questions": [{"id": "sans-gauche", "question": "Un second tour sans candidat de gauche ?", "p": 0.0212, "detail": "Aucun candidat de gauche, d'extrême gauche ou écologiste parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "sans-ed", "question": "Un second tour sans l'extrême droite ?", "p": 1.0, "detail": "Aucun candidat d'extrême droite parmi les deux finalistes."}, {"id": "seuil", "question": "de Gaulle au-dessus de 45 % au premier tour ?", "p": 0.2026, "detail": "Score attendu : 42,9 %."}, {"id": "renversement", "question": "Le candidat arrivé en tête du premier tour battu au second ?", "p": 0.0107, "detail": "C'est arrivé en 1974, 1981 et 1995."}, {"id": "photo-finish", "question": "Moins d'un point entre le 2e et le 3e du premier tour ?", "p": 0.0304, "detail": "Une qualification pour le second tour jouée à moins d'un point."}, {"id": "large", "question": "Un président élu avec plus de 55 % des voix ?", "p": 0.9662, "detail": "Au second tour, en suffrages exprimés."}, {"id": "duel-seconds", "question": "Mitterrand devant Lecanuet au premier tour ?", "p": 0.9788, "detail": "Les deux candidats qui suivent le favori dans les intentions de vote."}], "n_hypotheses": 4, "instituts": ["Ifop"], "sondages_retenus": [{"sondeur": "Ifop", "fin": "1965-12-02", "source": null, "lignes": 1, "poids": 0.989}], "concentration": 396.8}], "timeline": [{"date": "1965-11-06", "victoire": {"Charles de Gaulle": 1.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 0.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 0.0}, "qualifie": {"Charles de Gaulle": 1.0, "François Mitterrand": 1.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 0.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 0.0}, "premier_tour": {"Charles de Gaulle": [61.2, 65.81, 70.27], "François Mitterrand": [19.12, 22.99, 27.12], "Jean Lecanuet": [3.15, 5.06, 7.29], "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": [3.17, 5.06, 7.31]}}, {"date": "1965-11-13", "victoire": {"Charles de Gaulle": 1.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 0.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 0.0}, "qualifie": {"Charles de Gaulle": 1.0, "François Mitterrand": 1.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 0.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 0.0}, "premier_tour": {"Charles de Gaulle": [61.2, 65.81, 70.27], "François Mitterrand": [19.12, 22.99, 27.12], "Jean Lecanuet": [3.15, 5.06, 7.29], "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": [3.17, 5.06, 7.31]}}, {"date": "1965-11-20", "victoire": {"Charles de Gaulle": 1.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 0.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 0.0}, "qualifie": {"Charles de Gaulle": 1.0, "François Mitterrand": 1.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 0.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 0.0}, "premier_tour": {"Charles de Gaulle": [56.47, 60.85, 65.18], "François Mitterrand": [20.29, 23.99, 27.88], "Jean Lecanuet": [4.9, 7.05, 9.43], "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": [4.94, 7.05, 9.46]}}, {"date": "1965-11-27", "victoire": {"Charles de Gaulle": 0.5369, "François Mitterrand": 0.463, "Jean Lecanuet": 0.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 0.0}, "qualifie": {"Charles de Gaulle": 1.0, "François Mitterrand": 1.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 0.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 0.0}, "premier_tour": {"Charles de Gaulle": [42.22, 46.41, 50.61], "François Mitterrand": [24.26, 27.97, 31.82], "Jean Lecanuet": [11.22, 14.02, 17.02], "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": [5.03, 7.04, 9.32]}}, {"date": "1965-12-04", "victoire": {"Charles de Gaulle": 0.9892, "François Mitterrand": 0.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 0.0108, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 0.0}, "qualifie": {"Charles de Gaulle": 1.0, "François Mitterrand": 0.9782, "Jean Lecanuet": 0.0218, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 0.0}, "premier_tour": {"Charles de Gaulle": [38.89, 42.93, 47.06], "François Mitterrand": [23.39, 26.98, 30.71], "Jean Lecanuet": [16.77, 20.0, 23.35], "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": [5.06, 7.04, 9.25]}}], "sondages": [{"d": "1965-11-05", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 23.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 5.0, "Pierre Marcilhacy": 1.0, "Charles de Gaulle": 66.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 5.0}}, {"d": "1965-11-16", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"François Mitterrand": 24.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 7.0, "Pierre Marcilhacy": 1.0, "Charles de Gaulle": 61.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 7.0}}, {"d": "1965-11-27", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"Marcel Barbu": 1.5, "François Mitterrand": 28.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 14.0, "Pierre Marcilhacy": 3.0, "Charles de Gaulle": 46.5, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 7.0}}, {"d": "1965-12-02", "i": "Ifop", "s": {"Marcel Barbu": 1.0, "François Mitterrand": 27.0, "Jean Lecanuet": 20.0, "Pierre Marcilhacy": 2.0, "Charles de Gaulle": 43.0, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 7.0}}], "evenements": [], "resultats": {"premier_tour": {"Charles de Gaulle": 44.65, "François Mitterrand": 31.72, "Jean Lecanuet": 15.57, "Jean-Louis Tixier-Vignancour": 5.2, "Pierre Marcilhacy": 1.71, "Marcel Barbu": 1.15}, "second_tour": {"Charles de Gaulle": 55.2, "François Mitterrand": 44.8}, "date_premier_tour": "1965-12-05", "date_second_tour": "1965-12-19"}, "n_simulations": 500000, "n_sondages": 4, "n_hypotheses": 4, "n_duels": 3, "source": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1965", "licence": "CC BY-SA 4.0 — contributeurs de Wikipédia", "sources": [{"url": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1965", "licence": "CC BY-SA 4.0 — contributeurs de Wikipédia", "periode": null, "revision": 240395259}], "wiki": {"url": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1965", "historique": "https://fr.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%C3%89lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_1965&action=history"}}